After a trip to the conference finals in each of the last two seasons, the New York Islanders are looking to get back to the postseason again in 21/22. Under a cap crunch this offseason, they lost a few pieces and will look to sustain their regular season success in a difficult Metropolitan Division.
Grades
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Record
The Islanders are off to a 4-2-2 start to the 2021-2022 campaign. It leaves with a 0.625 point percentage through 8 games played, which is a good pace if they can sustain it. It’s also come entirely on the road as the Isles start the season with a 13 game road trip waiting for their new arena to open later this month. The only reason they don’t get full marks here is the relative strength of the Metropolitan Division. Despite their good start, they sit 6th in the division due to even better starts by some of their main competition.
Even Strength Offense
The Islanders’ 5v5 offensive results have been good through their first 8 games, as they sit 8th in the NHL with a 5v5 goals for rate of 2.77. The concern is that they may be riding some percentage luck early in the season, as they’ve been generating expected goals at a rate that is 0.5 G/60 lower.
Looking at individual players, it’s encouraging to see many of the Islanders top offensive threats performing well against their projections. Continuing their strong play will certainly help them keep pace in the Metropolitan Division, although we are likely to see their pace drop off close to projected rates over the long term.
Even Strength Defense
The Islanders have been known for their stingy defensive play over the Barry Trotz era. They are off to a good start in this regard once again, with their 5v5 goals against rate sitting 11th in the league. Similar to their offensive output, however, there are some warning signs that all is not well. Their expected goals against rate sits 25th in the league, so it’s been strong goaltending leading to their good defensive results through the first few games of the season. With their projected expected goals against sitting a fair bit lower than actual, we’ll likely see some improvement over the longer term.
Defensively, the Islander’s forward leaders are not a surprise. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Oliver Wahlstrom, and Zach Parise lead with the lowest expected goals against rates at 5v5. The Isles would benefit from some improved defensive play from their offensive minded forward, as we see on-ice 5v5 expected goals against over 3.0 for Josh Bailey, Matt Barzal, and Anders Lee. Among defensemen, shutdown pair Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock are among the best defensive results so far. At the high end, we see the effect of the Isles’ offseason cap crunch with new additions Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene among the highest 5v5 expected goals against rates on the team.
Goaltending has been excellent for the Isles thus far. Ilya Sorokin has played all 8 games and sports a very strong 5v5 goals saved above expected rate thus far. Continued strong play from Sorokin will be key to the Isles success while they straighten out their defensive play.
Powerplay
The Isles powerplay hasn’t benefited from the same high finishing as their even strength offense. They are generating expected goals at a rate that is 23rd in the league at 5v4, similar to their 5v5 offense. However, they haven’t had the same finishing luck and sit 20th in 5v4 goals for rate. The powerplay hasn’t been bad enough to be a major concern, but it’s not been great either.
Penalty Kill
The Islanders’ penalty kill has excellent results to start the season, in large part due to outstanding goaltending. Similar to their 5v5 defense, goaltending has propelled them to the 5th best 4v5 GA/60, while giving up expected goals at a rate 15th in the league.
Lineup Notes
The Islanders have been relatively healthy through the early season, avoiding any significant long term injuries.
Up Next
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Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Islanders and the rest of the Metropolitan Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Islanders and from around the league throughout the season.
