2021-2022 Season Projections
For all my season previews, we’ll be utilizing my 2021-2022 team and player projections. You can find much more background on these models here, along with more on assessing value of contracts here. In this post, we’ll preview the Toronto Maple Leafs.
2021 Offseason
With most of the Maple Leafs’ core set to return for the 21/22 season, the offseason was generally spent tinkering around the edges. Gone are Zach Hyman, Frederik Anderson, Joe Thornton, and Zach Bogosian. Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, David Kampf, Michael Bunting and Petr Mrazek head to Toronto to fill the holes.
2021-2022 Season Preview
Roster Strength
The Leafs have one of the most dangerous forward groups in the league, led by a strong top six. The bottom six isn’t quite as strong, but still looks very competent. The top four defense also looks strong, with the bottom pair looking like a possible weak point. While the starting goaltending doesn’t project strongly, they have a solid option at backup that should allow the team to ride the hot hand.
Forwards
The Leafs offense will be led by Austin Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander. While they account for a large chunk of the Leafs’ cap, their projected value is generally reasonable. The Leafs found some good value additions to complement them this offseason. Jason Spezza returns with an incredible projected value. Ondrej Kase’s value is similarly high and he could be a difference maker if he can stay healthy. Nick Ritchie and Michael Bunting also come with high projected value near the 75th percentile.
Defensemen
The Leafs will return for the 21/22 season with their top four defense in tact. They were a stabilizing force last season and we can expect the same again. Rasmus Sandin may get an opportunity to earn a regular spot on the bottom pair.
Goaltenders
While Jack Campbell’s projected impact is less than that of a staring goaltender, his performance last season was strong and likely made letting Frederik Andersen walk in free agency an easier decision. If he can carry over last season’s form, there’s a chance he’ll outperform the model projection. If he doesn’t the Leafs brought in another capable goaltender in Petr Mrazek.
Team Performance
The model projects the Maple Leafs as one of the contenders in the Atlantic Division. The big question will be whether their new look depth can help get them over the hump in the playoffs and past the first round for the first time in nearly two decades.
2021-2022 In Season Updates
Make sure to subscribe and check back for updates to the 2021-2022 season projections throughout the season. Watch for updates and enhancements to the models, updated player projections using 2021-2022 season data, analysis of trades and injuries, and more.
