2021-2022 Season Projections
For all my season previews, we’ll be utilizing my 2021-2022 team and player projections. You can find much more background on these models here, along with more on assessing value of contracts here. We’ll look at the Tampa Bay Lightning in this post.
2021 Offseason
The Lightning lost a number of players from last year’s championship roster this summer, particularly among the forward ranks, as they worked to stay under the cap. Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde and Barclay Goodrow have all departed and the Lightning were busy this summer filling the resulting holes. Corey Perry and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare join a new look bottom six that could also feature a prospect or two.
2021-2022 Season Preview
Roster Strength
Despite their offseason losses due to the salary cap, the Lightning head into the 21/22 season as one of the leagues most well rounded teams. The have good depth at both forward and defense and a proven starting goaltender. Backup goaltending may be the only area of concern, with the Lightning looking to 36 year old Brian Elliott to hold the fort when Andrei Vasilevskiy gets a night off.
Forwards
The Lightning return with much the same top six forward group from last season. With Nikita Kucherov healthy, they’ll be a dangerous group once again. Alex Barre-Boulet may get a look in the top six with some of the offseason turnover among the forward ranks. New additions Perry and Bellemare should fit in on the fourth line and make the bottom six tough to play against.
The Lightning are projected to continue getting good value from their contracts. Their top forwards all have projected values near the league median, while the depth players are generally providing strong impacts relative to their cap hits.
Defensemen
The Lightning will similar on defense to last season. They continue to be a force with a large contingent of their defenders providing value above the 75th percentile. Assuming Victor Hedman is back fully healthy this season and rebounds to his usual impact, the Lightning have one of the deepest defense corps in the league.
Goaltenders
Andrei Vasilevskiy will backstop the Lightning again this season. Brian Elliott looks like the likely backup to start the season. With a poor projected impact for Elliott, backup goaltending looks like the biggest weakness for the Lightning heading into the season.
Team Performance
The model has the Lightning in a tight battle in for playoff spots in the Atlantic. With good all-around depth and world-class starting goaltender, it’s seems very plausible that the Lightning make the playoffs as a lower seed but are a tough out in the playoffs.
2021-2022 In Season Updates
Make sure to subscribe and check back for updates to the 2021-2022 season projections throughout the season. Watch for updates and enhancements to the models, updated player projections using 2021-2022 season data, analysis of trades and injuries, and more.
Tight battle for a playoff spot?
This is why analytics are a joke. When the analytics said they would win it all, they chocked in the playoffs. Now they know how to win. Analytics can’t measure that.
The Lightning are a very deep team, which I think is a major factor in a team’s playoff performance exceeding their regular season standing. We often see top heavy teams like Toronto and Edmonton excel in the regular season only to crash out of the playoff early. Something I’d like to look into further.
Could be a similar narrative as last season for the Lightning, where they were the 3 seed in the division but went all the way.
You’re right but age seems to be creeping into their DNA. Maybe it’s all the games played in the last three years or maybe it’s the injuries they sustained
(all teams have injuries when in the Stanley Cup Finals) but they looked really tired at times. Especially game 6