2021-2022 Projections
For all my season previews, we’ll be utilizing my 2021-2022 team and player projections. You can find much more background on these models here, along with more on assessing value of contracts here. Today, we’re headed to Motown for a look at the Detroit Red Wings.
2021 Offseason
The Red Wings biggest moves this offseason came via the trade front. Detroit acquired Alex Nedeljkovic from Carolina as their new starting goaltender, as well as Nick Leddy from the Islanders to bolster their defense corps. The Red Wings were also busy signing a number of players to extensions, including Tyler Bertuzzi and Jacob Vrana. With only 3 players under contract past the 22/23 season, the Red Wings rebuild looks ready to start building momentum.
2021-2022 Season Preview
Roster Strength
As the Red Wings continue on their rebuild, there are some significant weaknesses in the roster as is stands heading into the 21/22 season. The first and fourth lines look decent but the middle six looks weak. The defense corps looks relatively weak all around. The strong goaltending projections will likely be put to the test.
Forwards
Acquired from the Capitals at last season’s trade deadline, Jacob Vrana will get an opportunity to be an offensive leader in Detroit. The Red Wings will need a lot from him, with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi the only other two top six quality forwards. Detroit will be looking for a few players to step up into larger roles in the middle of the lineup.
The Red Wings were able to lock up Vrana on a very reasonable contract, which has projected value near the 75th percentile. Tyler Bertuzzi’s extension was not as good a value, coming in below league median. Detroit did make some good value depth signings, bringing back Sam Gagner and adding Carter Rowney.
Defensemen
The Red Wings defense will be led by Danny DeKeyser, who projects as a top pair defenseman. Behind him, the Red Wings have a number of capable bottom pair defenders. They’ll need a couple of them to step up into larger roles in the top four.
Detroit added some poor value contracts on defense this offseason, in Nick Leddy and Filip Hronek (extension). While still in rebuild mode, it’s possible this was motivated by the need to get to the cap floor for 21/22.
Goaltenders
With the acquisition of Alex Nedeljkovic from Carolina as the new starter in Detroit, the Red Wings goaltending projections are solid. With limited NHL experience (and data) backing up the projection, there is reason to be skeptical whether the move will work out as well as projected.
Team Performance
The model projection puts the Red Wings in the mix for a playoff spot this season. However, we see it’s largely due to very strong projected goaltending and with Nedeljkovic’s short NHL track record, this is an area of uncertainty. With one of the worst offensive projections in the division, they’ll need strong goaltending to stay in the mix.
2021-2022 In Season Updates
Make sure to subscribe and check back for updates to the 2021-2022 season projections throughout the season. Watch for updates and enhancements to the models, updated player projections using 2021-2022 season data, analysis of trades and injuries, and more.
