For all my season previews, we’ll be utilizing my 2021-2022 team and player projections. You can find much more background on these models here, along with more on assessing value of contracts here. We looked at the New Jersey Devils last time. Today, we travel to Florida for our first preview of an Atlantic Division team.
2021 Offseason
In my 2020-2021 Panthers season review, we thought the Panthers would benefit from moving out some high cost, low value contracts and that they should target high value middle six forwards and mid-pairing defensemen to improve their depth this offseason.
GM Bill Zito must have seen the same things we did. He moved out poor value contracts via buyout (Keith Yandle) and trade (Anton Stralman) and he brought in Sam Reinhart and Joe Thornton to improve forward depth. On top of that, he re-signed a number of skaters to extensions with generally very good projected value.
2021-2022 Season Preview
Roster Strength
The Panther’s skater depth looks solid heading into the 21/22 season. The top six forward group looks strong, and there is good depth behind them. Their defense looks solid top to bottom. Goaltending remains the biggest question mark and could be the factor that decides how far this team can go.
Forwards
Florida’s offense will be led by Aleksander Barkov, who has emerged as one of the games best two way players. With Anthony Duclair and Sam Bennett re-signed and the addition of Sam Reinhart, the Panthers have a solid top six forward group. The bottom six has a mix of veteran experience and youth and we could see a breakout season from a youngster like Owen Tippett.
The forward group is largely void of poor value contracts. The extension for Anthony Duclair and the deal for Joe Thornton have excellent projected value, coming in above the 75th percentile. Carter Verhaeghe has one year left on his deal before his extension kicks in and should provide similarly high value. Sam Bennett’s extension came in right at league median value, while Sam Reinhart’s was the only new deal with below league median projected value.
Defensemen
The Panther’s defense looks like a strong group, led by MacKenzie Weegar and Aaron Ekblad. Offloading Yandle and Stralman’s contracts not only helped the Panther’s cap situation, but also opened up roster positions for young players like Gustav Forsling, who has a strong projected value.
Like the forwards, Florida’s defense is also void of poor value contracts. All of the Panther’s top six defensemen have projected value above the league median, with Weegar and Nutivaara’s looking particularly good.
Goaltending
The biggest question mark for the Panthers heading into the 21/22 season is in net. Goaltending duties look like they will be shared between Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight. With another five years remaining on Bobrovsky’s deal with a $10M cap hit, the Panthers would like to see a bounce back from him. If that doesn’t happen, highly touted youngster Spencer Knight could challenge for the starter’s net.
Team Performance
The Panther’s have the best projected offense in the Atlantic Division in the model, yet sit 6th in the projected standings due to poor projected goaltending. If Bobrovsky can rebound or Knight emerges as a quality starting goaltender, they could push their way up the standings.
2021-2022 In Season Updates
Make sure to subscribe and check back for updates to the 2021-2022 season projections throughout the season. Watch for updates and enhancements to the models, updated player projections using 2021-2022 season data, analysis of trades and injuries, and more.
