2021-2022 Season Projections
For all my season previews, we’ll be utilizing my 2021-2022 team and player projections. You can find much more background on these models here, along with more on assessing value of contracts here. Last time, we looked at the expansion Seattle Kraken. Today, we move on to the team that lost Philip Grubauer to the Kraken as we head to Denver to preview the Colorado Avalanche.
2021 Offseason
When we last looked at the Avalanche in my 2020-2021 season review, it was clear that goaltending would be a priority this offseason as they entered the offseason with no NHL goaltenders under contract for 2021-2022. Captain Gabriel Landeskog was headed for unrestricted free agency and star defenseman Cale Makar was a pending restricted free agent due a significant raise.
Colorado managed to lock up Makar and bring back Landeskog, however lost starting goaltender Philip Grubauer and forward Brandon Saad in free agency. With limited options available, the Avalanche paid a hefty price to bring in Darcy Keumper from Arizona to fill the void in net. The Avs also notably sent Ryan Graves to New Jersey ahead of the expansion draft and lost Joonas Donskoi to Seattle in the expansion draft.
2021-2022 Season Preview
Roster Strength
The Avalanche have explosive talent in their top six forward group, along with possibly the best defense corps in the NHL. Their forward depth is a bit of a question mark, with multiple roster spots looking like they are up for grabs in training camp. Goaltending looks like it could be a weak point. Let’s dig into each of these in more detail.
Forwards
The Avalanche have a dangerous top 6 forward group, led by Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen. The bottom six looks to have some openings that could allow young players to earn NHL roster spots in training camp. Alex Newhook will have an opportunity to take one of those spots and he has the potential to outperform the model.
The Av’s were able to re-sign UFA Landeskog with a reasonable cap hit, coming in at the league median for value. Their forward group is full of high value contracts, including their stars, which has helped them to build a strong team.
Defensemen
The Avalanche may have the best defense corps in the NHL with all six of their starting defensemen having projected impacts of top pair defensemen. Cale Makar stands out as one of the league’s elite defensemen and is the cornerstone for the group. With strong projected impacts right through the bottom pair, they should be able to weather injuries throughout the season relatively well and provide stability throughout the season.
Similar to the forward group, the Av’s defense is full of high value contracts. Makar’s extension comes in as slightly below the league median for projected value in 21/22, yet he is only 22 years old and we will likely watch him develop further over the course of this contract. Ryan Murray was another great addition this offseason, with a solid projected impact for a very reasonable cap hit.
Goaltenders
Goaltending is the biggest question mark in Denver heading into the season. Acquiring Keumper from Arizona was a necessary move after losing Grubauer in free agency, however he has had some injury troubles in recent seasons and the Avs do not have an NHL proven backup.
Team Performance
The Avalanche are projected to have a potent offense once again this season. Goaltending and forward depth hold them back in the model, which puts them in fourth in the Central. If goaltending is better than projected or the Av’s get a breakout season from a rookie, there is potential for them to outperform the model and challenge for a higher spot in the division.
2021-2022 In Season Updates
Make sure to subscribe and check back for updates to the 2021-2022 season projections throughout the season. Watch for updates and enhancements to the models, updated player projections using 2021-2022 season data, analysis of trades and injuries, and more.
