With the free agent frenzy starting to subside, I’m looking through each team’s moves over the past few days and analyzing their roster as it sits now. While we should expect a few more notable roster moves before training camps open, we probably have a reasonable picture of how things will look at this point. This post focuses on the Western Conference.
A few comments on the new roster strength plots before we dive in. The roster strength scores compare the strength of each unit to the relative strength that each unit should have, relative to the player impacts throughout the league. A score of 0 represents a unit whose average impact equals that of the minimum for a player that should be on the unit. For example, a score of 0 for Line 1 indicates the average impact for the three forwards on line one is equal to the impact of the 96th best forward in the league (32 teams x 3 forwards). Strong teams will have scores above 0 throughout the roster. Score below 0 are a glaring weakness.
I’ve included only the roster strength plots in this post. You can find the detailed player projections on the respective pages for the Pacific Division and Central Division.
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks had a fairly quiet opening to free agency, with their most notable move bring back captain Ryan Getzlaf on a 1 year deal with a cap hit of $4.5M. While Getzlaf’s impact is not as great as it once was, he is still an effective player with projected impact of a borderline 2nd/3rd line forward.
The Ducks are lacking talent throughout the roster. It could be another long season in the rebuild process.
Calgary Flames
The Flames filled in a number of holes as free agency opened with a combination of free agent signings and a couple of trades. Blake Coleman was the biggest name, signed to a 6 year contract with a cap hit of $4.9M. Coleman’s projected impact is that of a borderline 1st/2nd line forward, making the cap hit look quite reasonable. The 6 year term could be an issue, however the Flames are better in 21/22 with his addition. Among their other moves, the Flames also brought in Trevor Lewis on a 1 year, $800k contract. This looks like a great value signing for the bottom six, with projected impact per $1M triple the league median.
The Flames look like a fairly well rounded team at this point, ready to compete for a playoff spot in the Pacific.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers bolstered both their forward and defense groups through free agency. Zach Hyman heads to Edmonton on a 7 year deal with a cap hit of $5.5M. Hyman’s projected impact is that of a high end 2nd line forward. While he certainly makes the Oilers better, this could become a contract the Oiler’s regret. Hyman’s projected impact per million is slightly below the league median and, at age 29 as the contract starts, this could become an inefficient spend in the longer term. The Oiler’s best move may have been scooping Derek Ryan from the rival Calgary Flames. Ryan can play throughout the lineup and his projected value per $1M is massive.
The Oilers’ forward group could still use some additional depth and the revamp of their D-corps looks questionable but they should be in the mix for playoff contention in the Pacific.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings landed Philip Danault in free agency, adding a top line center who’s projected impact for 21/22 is that of a franchise forward. Not only that, but they landed Danault for a very reasonable $5.5M cap hit which put the impact per $1M well above the league median. The Kings also added Alex Edler, who should solidify their second defensive pair.
The Kings appear to be trying to turn the corner in their rebuild but the roster doesn’t look like it’s deep enough to make the playoffs this season.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks most notable move may have been adding James Reimer, who will likely be the Sharks starting goaltender. They also added veteran forwards Andrew Cogliano and Nick Bonino. Both look like good value signings, with strong impact per $1M.
The Sharks look like a mediocre team caught in the middle. Their projection for the 21/22 season is strong enough to make the playoffs, however it’s heavily reliant on getting high quality goaltending.
Seattle Kraken
The Kraken made a splash in free agency, adding Philipp Grubauer, Jaden Schwartz and Alex Wennberg. While they spent a good chunk of cash, the moves look somewhat suspect. Grubauer comes with a $5.9M cap hit and, while he was good in Colorado last season, the 6 year term could be trouble for a position that still seems like voodoo. Wennberg’s numbers last season were buoyed by 20% shooting and his projected impact is only that of a 3rd line forward. With an impact per $1M at the 25th percentile, it looks like an overpay. Schwartz looks like the best deal of the three, with projected value coming in just above league median for a top line impact.
The Kraken look short on high end forward talent which isn’t a surprise given the expansion draft rules. They are a deep team and should be in the playoff mix.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks were extremely busy on day one of free agency. Most notably, they revamped their defense corps with the additions of Tucker Poolman, Luke Schenn and Travis Hamonic. Hamonic gets the largest cap hit of the three, at $3M and it looks like the Canucks found good value for the group. However, the overall impact looks questionable with 5 of their top 6 defensemen projected with borderline 2nd/3rd pair impact.
The Canucks made changes this offseason, but they don’t appear to be better off for it. They have borderline projected impacts throughout the lineup and could struggle to push their way into the playoffs with this roster.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights were relatively quiet during free agency, with their biggest move being re-signing Alec Martinez. While the projected value is below league median, Martinez is a borderline 1st/2nd pair defensemen. With his return, the Knights may have the best defense in the division.
The Golden Knights projection suggest they will struggle to maintain their elite standing. However, this is due mainly to the loss of Marc-Andre Fleury and poor projected goaltending impacts. If their goaltending is at least average, they will be a force once again.
Pacific Division Projected Standings
Central Division
Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes continue to tear down, sending starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper to Colorado and replacing him with Carter Hutton.
The Coyotes look to vie for lottery odds this season.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks continued to load up as free agency opened however their biggest move may have been via the trade market. The Blackhawks acquired reigning Vezina trophy winner Marc-Andre Fleury from the Golden Knights. The were also active in free agency, adding Jake McCabe and Jujhar Khaira.
While the Blackhawks appear to be loading up for a playoff run, their roster simply doesn’t stack up. It could be a long season in Chicago.
Colorado Avalanche
The Av’s biggest move during the opening of free agency was the acquisition of Darcy Kuemper from Arizona. They paid a hefty price, however need to after losing Philipp Grubauer to Seattle. The Avalanche were able to bring bac Gabriel Landeskog, signing him to a long term deal with an impact per $1M for 21/22 right at the league median.
The Avalanche look like a top heavy team and the goaltending situation is questionable at this point. If they can get better goaltending than the model predicts, they will be a force again.
Dallas Stars
The Stars made a number of signings, with the most interesting possibly being the addition of Jani Hakanpaa. Hakanpaa projects as a top pair defenseman and, even if he performs as slightly less, the $1.5M cap hit looks like a bargain. Other notable moves include signing Ryan Suter and Michael Raffl.
The Stars depth positions look like their strength, while their top units could use an upgrade. The Stars look like they will struggle to make the playoffs again this season.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild brought primarily depth during the opening of free agency in forward Frederik Gaudreau and a trio of defensemen. Gaudreau and Jon Merrill look like great value signings with impact per $1M well above the 75th percentile. Alex Goligoski and Dmitry Kulikov, on the other hand, look like poor value additions with impact per $1M well below the median.
The Wild look like a flawed team at this point, with a number of positions getting scores near 0. It will be a challenge for the Wild to repeat their strong performance from last season.
Nashville Predators
The Predators were relatively quiet as free agency opened. Their most notable move may have been bringing in David Rittich as backup after Pekka Rinne retired earlier in the offseason.
The Predators lack top end forward talent, however have good depth. They could be in the mix for a playoff spot.
St Louis Blues
The Blues landed coveted free agent Brandon Saad, who comes with a $4.5M cap hit. With the projected impact of a top line forward, this looks like excellent value for the Blues. They also signed RFA Pavel Buchnevich, also projecting as a top line forward, with an impact per $1M slightly above league median.
The Blues’ top end talent is decent and their forward depth is strong. They should be in the playoff mix.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets did their heavy lifting ahead of free agency via the trade market, significantly revamping their defense. Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt both project as 2nd pair defensemen. The Jets also re-signed Paul Stastny on what looks like a great value deal.
While the Jets’ defense has improved, they still lack a true top pair. The Jets top forwards may be able to drag the Jets into the playoffs.
Central Division Projected Standings
