Last time, I introduced the Contention Roadmaps and we looked at the Pacific Division. Contention Roadmaps merge a number of the roster building ideas I’ve been looking at and give us a picture of long term outlooks. Today, we’ll finish out the Western Conference and look at the Central Division.
If you aren’t already familiar with my definition of player tiers or other concepts used in the team analysis below, you can catch up with with some previous posts:
Central Division Contention Roadmaps
As we did with the Pacific Division, we’ll look at the Central Division team in order of the current standings before we postulate what the division might look like five years from now.
Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche are the most recent Stanley Cup Champions in the Central Division and, four years later, they’re setting the pace in the regular season. The current squad is most certainly a measuring stick for other contenders.
The Avalanche showed us last season that they aren’t just riding out their contention window with their core in tact while they tinker on the edges. They moved out Mikko Rantanen last winter, bringing in Martin Necas and Jack Drury. Necas fits their shifting contention cohort and Drury will join it next season. The current NHL roster is getting older, but it’s clearly good enough to take a run at a Cup this spring and they still have a few good looking prospects in the pipeline. If they continue to make bold moves to retool the contention cohort, there’s reason to believe they could be relevant in the Central for a long time yet.
Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars went on a run to the Stanley Cup Final in the bubble with a mix of veterans and a budding young contention roster. This was an interesting one to fit to the historical roster building timeline, with a couple of viable option. With their notable 2017 draft class now in their prime and additional support arriving through the draft in the form of Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley et al., the 2Y retool shift highlights both their current contention aspirations and the long term viability of contention.
The Stars field a strong contention cohort with their 2017 draft class included in the group. There’s also plenty of support from the young guns. Looking at their player tiers and their competition in the Central, it becomes clear that the forward group could use an upgrade, though. Tyler Seguin’s season ending injury exacerbates the problem. The Stars have the pieces to be a Central Division contender for a long time, but they should be looking to add to their top 6 forward group and also turn over some of the veterans to continue to feed their prospect pipeline.
Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild were another interesting one to pin down on the timeline. They don’t have a clear bottom out point and they’re clearly one of the top teams in the NHL this season. Their contention status this season drove the Retool status with a contention cohort from the 2014-2017 drafts.
As things sit now, the contention cohort is not as strong as we’d like to see. However, there are some elite players sitting in the young guns cohort that make up the difference. The Wild are finally out of cap purgatory from their Parise/Suter buyouts and entering a period where they can finally reap the rewards of that change in direction. There are a couple of apparent gaps in their core contention roster that should be a roster building priority, looking for opportunities to bring in additional top 6 forwards in their prime.
Utah Mammoth
The Utah Mammoth are a team on the rise and they find themselves in a playoff race this season. Their young Dudes are a big part of it too, with Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther playing key roles. The contention cohort looks strong and capable of supporting a contending roster.
The Mammoth’s move to Utah and their apparent desire to be competitive quickly may be the biggest challenge in front of them. They have moved out a couple of good players from the contention cohort age group (JJ Moser, Conor Geekie and Josh Doan) to acquire players that can impact their performance now (JJ Peterka, Mikhail Sergachev). The good news is those acquisitions are just a few years older than their contention cohort and look like the best options to be veteran contributors in the longer term. It’s coming together, the Mammoth need to remain patient to cultivate this group into a true contender.
Nashville Predators
The Barry Trotz era was a short one for the Nashville Predators. A very aggressive summer in 2024 resulted in a full on faceplant. The Preds have announced that Trotz is stepping down after less than 3 years at the helm and the roster needs a complete overhaul.
With their unintended tumble down the standings earning them a top 5 pick last season, the Predators have the starting point to reassemble a competitive roster. There’s a long way to go, however, and the realization that Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi and Juuse Saros will age out before the new group is ready could add some much needed fuel to a rebuild.
Winnipeg Jets
After an exciting 2024/2025 President’s Trophy winning season, the Jets have cratered quickly. They’re facing an uncomfortable truth in the face. This team is getting older and just isn’t good enough. With many key players cresting 30 and beyond, the Jets are facing some team level age related regression if they don’t adjust the mix on their roster.
The sooner the Jets realize and accept the position they’re in, the better for their long term outlook. If the front office looks at this season as an aberration, I’m afraid they’re in for a nasty surprise next season. If they accept it and lean in, there could be some massive trade chips in their hands. A 32 year old Connor Hellebuyck is worth very little to the Jets contention roster as I’ve shown them on the roster building timeline since he’ll be cresting 40 by the time the team is ready to contend. Considering him their best trade chip coming off a Vezina and Olympic gold could reap a massive return to kickstart a rebuild.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Chicago Blackhawks are on their way out of the NHL basement. It’s not an easy ascent and the Hawks have shown those growing pains this year with some streaky results.
Patience will be the key in Chicago. They’ve been filling the roster with veterans while their new group develops and the patience so far is starting to pay dividends. Connor Bedard has arrived at the NHL level and we’re starting to see more of his cohort get their opportunity in the NHL. Another year or two and this is a team that could be playing meaningful games down the stretch on a regular basis. If they play their cards right, they could be following the Mammoth up the Central Division standings.
St Louis Blues
It’s not clear that the Blues have recognized (or maybe accepted) where they are over the past few years. Their offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway two summers ago suggested they thought they were just a few pieces away from contention. Their results over the past couple of years suggest a different story though.
Reality can be a hard pill to swallow at times and the reality is the Blues are in the Central Division basement at the 3/4 mark of the season this year. There are plenty of Guys on the roster that could be of interest to other teams but the aggregate just isn’t good enough in St Louis. If rumors are correct that they’re open to moving players like Robert Thomas, perhaps the Blues front office has accepted their reality. The asking price for Thomas is rumored to be massive and a strong return could set a Blues reset off on strong footing.
Central Division Power Rankings 2030/2031
The Central Division is a three headed monster this year. The Avalanche, Stars and Wild have all shown enough and have the resources in their organizations to continue to retool for some time. The other five teams will have to play their hands well to force their way into the mix. The Mammoth look the closest to challenging the big three and the Blackhawks are coming along a few years behind them, both with clear contention cohorts building. The Blues, Predators and Jets have all been trying to contend over the past few seasons but new realities are setting in and they could be staring some tough seasons in the face.
Central Division 2030/2031 Power Rankings
- Utah Mammoth
- Minnesota Wild
- Dallas Stars
- Colorado Avalanche
- Chicago Blackhawks
- St Louis Blues
- Nashville Predators
- Winnipeg Jets
More
Stay tuned for more Contention Roadmaps for the Eastern Conference. You can also find the latest Contention Roadmaps here and the post on the Pacific Division teams here.
