Yesterday, I looked at the Calgary Flames 22/23 season performance and roster profile. We saw a team that looks like a potential contender this season and left off with the question of how the Flames can maximize their roster for a playoff run this season. Today, we’ll dig into that question and look at team needs and possible targets to upgrade their roster.
Current Lineup
In yesterday’s post, we looked at the Flames team profile where we saw them rank average or better in all categories. From that view, there really weren’t any areas that appear to be obvious, major weaknesses to target for upgrades.
Let’s dig in deeper and look at the current full strength lineup from a couple of angles to get a more robust picture. First, a look at projected impact and total cap hit. Second, a look at projected offensive impact and projected defensive cap hit. These will help us identify strengths and weaknesses as we move on.
Strengths
Center Depth: The combination of Elias Lindholm, Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund gives the Flames a 1-2-3 punch down the middle that they haven’t had for a long time. Lindholm and Backlund are both very strong defensively, giving the Flames a couple of options when it comes to shutting down opposing teams. And, as we saw in yesterday’s post, Lindholm and Backlund are leading the team in 5v5 offensive production.
Defense Depth: While the Flames lack a truly elite defenseman, they make up for it with depth on the blueline. Michael Stone, the Flames 6th defenseman, is roughly average in projected impact for NHL defenseman. With good balance through the defense corps, the Flames don’t have to be overly concerned about a weaker pair getting caught out against an opposing top line. Of course, they have two of the stingiest defensemen in the league in Chris Tanev and MacKenzie Weegar included in the mix, so the Flames are also well equipped to shut down their opponents top offensive threats.
Areas for Improvement
Fourth Line: The fourth line has been a frequent source of trouble this season. They have often found themselves pinned in their own end for lengthy periods. Milan Lucic and Kevin Rooney have both looked like sub replacement level players and foot speed has been generally lacking. It’s lead to a couple of healthy scratches for Lucic and a demotion to the AHL for Rooney late last week as the Flames look for improvement.
Top 6 Wingers: While their center depth is strong, the Flames could use another top 6 winger. The recent emergence of Adam Ruzicka has helped in this area. Ruzicka has been good but we’re still looking at a small sample size as we try to understand just how effective he can be at the NHL level. Dillon Dube is treading water in the top six when we consider net impact and a move further down the lineup may help maximize his impact. Kadri has had the worst defensive impact of the Flames top three centers and adding another defensively sound winger might help the second line’s overall game. Of course, an addition to the top 6 would also help address the 4th line depth as other skaters get pushed down the depth chart.
Top Pair D: As we saw in yesterday’s post, Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson have struggled defensively as a pair this season as well. Noah Hanifin grades out as a top pair defenseman in the model, but Andersson looks more like a second pair defenseman. The Flames are lacking a truly elite defenseman and adding one could make the Flames D corps one of the best in the league.
Cap Situation
The Flames have $1.5M in current cap space and $4.4M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly). That’s probably not enough to add an elite defenseman, but it is enough to look for a middle six winger.
Of course, if the Flames could find a way to move out some salary, they could open up more option. Milan Lucic’s $5.25M cap hit is the obvious choice here, although his modified no-trade clause makes moving him a more difficult task. We’ll assume the trade cost is prohibitive or Lucic is unwilling to waive his M-NTC so we’re stuck with the $4.4M in deadline cap space.
Trade Deadline Targets
It’s time we step into the GM’s chair and look for some options to improve the Flames roster as they look to go on a long playoff run. We’re looking for a top six winger upgrade and, in an ideal scenario, a top pair defenseman. The winger is probably more attainable with the cap space we have, so we’ll focus our efforts there. Let’s look at some potential targets:
Timo Meier (SJS): A 26 year old pending RFA, Meier would add some much needed finishing to the Flames forward lineup. His cap hit is $6M, though, so we may need some salary retention included in the deal. He looks like a top line forward in the model, so we would also get a higher impact player than we were hoping for.
Ivan Barbashev (STL): The Blues have been streaky this season and it seems reasonable to think they could be sellers at the deadline. Barbashev has the middle six projected impact we’re looking for and is a true rental as a pending UFA and a $2.25M cap hit.
Andreas Athanasiou (CHI): The Blackhawks are clearly in rebuilding mode and all their UFAs will likely be on the block by the deadline. Athanasiou has a similar projected impact to Barbashev, but is more of a goal scorer and would come with a $3M cap hit.
Tyler Motte (OTT): It’s been a rough start to the season for a Senators squad that had greatly increased expectation this season. Motte is a 27 year old pending UFA that could slot in the middle six or on the 4th line and he has a modest $1.35M cap hit, so could be a good value option.
Oliver Kylington (CGY): The Flames may have an opportunity to upgrade their defense internally, without taking on any additional cap hit. Oliver Kylington has been away from the team for personal reasons although his cap hit still counts as a non-roster player. Details on his absence have been sparse but, if he returns before the end of the season, the Flames will add a top 4 defenseman to their lineup.
Hypothetical Playoff Lineup
The possibility of adding a top line forward with the goal scoring ability of Meier is too much to pass up, so we’re going to assume we can make a deal to acquire him without giving up a player from our NHL roster. If we assume that Kylington returns for the playoffs as well, we can do it without any salary retention. Kylington’s return to the active roster means another defensemen would be sent down the AHL (Mackey – $912k) and we’ll also send down a forward to make room for Meier on the roster (Zohorna – $750). Our $4.4M in deadline cap space plus the $1.65M sent to the AHL gives us just enough to take on Meier’s full $6.0M cap hit without any retention in the trade.
The addition of Meier addresses many of the concerns we had with the forward group. Jonathan Huberdeau gets another strong goalscorer added to his line. Tyler Toffoli moves to the second line, upgrading the defensive impact alongside Kadri. Dillon Dube moves to the fourth line, giving it a big upgrade and an injection of speed. While Kylington isn’t the elite defenseman we wanted in an ideal scenario, he adds depth to an already deep Flames blueline.
Of course, there are a lot of unknowns for us armchair GMs and the hypothetical roster above may not be precisely achievable. It does give us a sense of what’s possible, though, and the Flames appear to be positioned as a contender if they can make similar upgrades. And as an added bonus, if Matthew Phillips or Radim Zohorna can ace their current auditions with the big club, the Flames will have some additional options to insert into a playoff lineup.
It’s also not the only way to upgrade the roster. How would you upgrade the Flames roster?
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
