In the last Atlantic Division Snapshot, we looked at how the teams were shaping up ahead of the regular season with training camps in progress. With the first week of the regular season now in the books, let’s take a look at how the landscape has changed with results of games played through Oct 15 included.
A note on small sample sizes before we jump in: the player projections from the model use a minimum of 200 5v5 minutes in a season to ensure sample sizes are large enough to identify longer term trends. We obviously aren’t there yet, as Erik Karlsson leads all skaters with 71 5v5 minutes and Juuse Saros leads goaltenders with 133 5v5 minutes. Extreme results from the first week of the season are likely not sustainable in the long term given the small sample size. So get excited (or panic) about your favorite team’s results through the first week, but temper that enthusiasm and avoid jumping to conclusions about season long expectations just yet.
Atlantic Division Projected Standings
The has been some movement in the Atlantic Division projections since our look during the preseason. The Bruins, Red Wings and Panthers are all off to 2-0-0 starts to lead the current standings, while the Bruins have pulled into the lead in the projected standings. Detroit’s quick start, coupled with a 1-2-0 start by the Lightning has the Red Wings now ahead of Tampa Bay in the full season projections. Let’s take a look at how the landscape has changed since our preseason snapshot, in order of the projected standings.
1 – Boston Bruins
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: +1
One of last season’s best 5v5 teams, the Bruins are showing early signs that they will be an elite 5v5 team again this season. Yes, one of their games was at home against the Coyotes but their 5v5 expected goal share is impressive nonetheless. Strong finishing, good goaltending and excellent special teams have also contributed to an impressive start to the season.
After a season spent in Europe, David Krejci has returned to the NHL without missing a beat. He has 3 primary points at 5v5 through the Bruins’ first 2 games.
2 – Florida Panthers
Change in Projected Standings Points: -6
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Panthers are off to a 2-0-0 start, with victories over the Islanders and Sabres. The slight deficit in expected goal share is a slight concern given the quality of their opposition, but it’s much too early to draw too many conclusions with just two games in the books. The drop in their projected standings points is not due to their results from the first two games but a reflection of some roster decisions late in the preseason that reduced their projected team strength.
Eetu Luostarinen has been good out of the gate for the Panthers. He’s seen just 18 minutes of ice time at 5v5 through 2 games, yet put up a goal and an assist in that time to complement a strong defensive impact.
3 – Toronto Maple Leafs
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Maple Leafs put a loss to the rival Canadiens in their opener in the rear view mirror with a pair of 3-2 victories over the Capitals and Senators that brought their record to 1-2-0 in week 1. Goaltending remains the biggest concern in Toronto, as the new tandem sitting well back of break even in goals saved above expected through the first 3 games.
With Matt Murray injured following the season opener and now on LTIR, it will be up to Ilya Samsonov to stabilize the performance in the crease. The bad news is that Samsonov’s projected impact this season is only that of a middling backup. The good news is that he’s been much better than that in his first two appearances for the Maple Leafs.
4 – Detroit Red Wings
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Red Wings are off to a 2-0-0 start as they look to power out of their rebuild. Excellent finishing and goaltending have overcome a slight expected goal share deficit at 5v5 thus far. They’ll want to improve their xG% if they have playoff aspirations this season but it’s close enough to even that it’s not a huge concern yet.
After missing a large amount of time to start the 21/22 season, Jakub Vrana is healthy to start the season and he’s making the most of his opportunities so far, tallying a couple of primary points at 5v5 in 2 games played.
5 – Tampa Bay Lightning
Change in Projected Standings Points: -4
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Lightning are off to a 1-2-0 start to the season. A significant deficit in 5v5 expected goal share over their first three games is concerning, although it’s too early to push the panic button. On top of the small sample size, their two losses came at the hand of the Rangers and Penguins so they’ve faced some strong teams to kick-off the season.
Ross Colton is off to a good start in his third NHL campaign, picking up a goal and an assist at 5v5 through 3 games played.
6 – Montreal Canadiens
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Canadiens kicked off the season with a win over the rival Maple Leafs, followed by a pair of regulation losses to drop their record to 1-2-0. It’s a favorable result through the first week given the large deficit they’ve accumulated in 5v5 expected goal share. Strong goaltending and finishing has masked the issue somewhat through 3 games, but they’ll have to improve there if they want to avoid a repeat of last season’s results.
Cole Caufield appears to be continuing where he left off last season, with 3 points in the Habs’ first 3 games (all at 5v5).
7 – Ottawa Senators
Change in Projected Standings Points: -7
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Senators are off to an 0-2-0 start to the 22/23 campaign. They can’t seem to buy a goal, which has unraveled gains from a near break even expected goal share and solid goaltending.
Claude Giroux notched his first goal as a Senator in his first Battle of Ontario.
8 – Buffalo Sabres
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: +0
Everything seems to be going in for the Sabres to start the season. Extremely strong finishing has helped get them out of the gate with a 1-1 record.
Alex Tuch is off to a strong start as he continues to establish himself as a key player for the Sabres. He has a goal and and assist at 5v5 through 2 games played.
More Plots
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse team plots for all 32 teams? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
