2021 Offseason Update: Expansion Draft

The expansion draft is in the books and the Seattle Kraken have their initial roster. While there may still be side deals to be announced that could change the landscape, let’s take a look at Seattle’s initial selections as well as some of the notable impacts on other teams around the league.

Seattle Kraken

Based on the Kraken’s 30 selections in the expansion draft, I’ve assembled an initial projected opening night roster of 23 players for the point projector model. Let’s take a look at the roster and a few of the notable selections.

Forwards

Jordan Eberle and Yanni Gourde may be the most recognizable names among the Kraken forward group. Both are strong impact players given the constraints of the expansion draft, with Eberle projecting as a second line forward and Gourde as a borderline top line forwards. Jared McCann and Joonas Donskoi may be the hidden gems here though. Both were buried on the depth chart on their previous teams but project as top line forwards and both come with affordable cap hits putting their impact per $1M above the 75th percentile.

Further down the forward depth chart, Colin Blackwell, Mason Appleton and Morgan Geekie are excellent value selections by the Kraken. They all come with astronomical impact per $1M and have overall projected impact that fits in the middle of the lineup. These three are standouts in an overall cap efficient forward lineup. Without a single player’s impact per $1M below the league median, the Kraken don’t have a bad contract in the forward group.

Defensemen

Mark Giordano is the obvious standout on defense. The now former Flames’ captain still has the projected impact of a franchise defenseman and he come with a reasonable cap hit. With just one year left on his deal, the Kraken plucked a key piece from a divisional rival without taking much risk of future cap trouble.

Vince Dunn and Carson Soucy look like they could be excellent picks as well. Both have projected impacts of top pairing defenders. While I’ve put them further down the initial depth chart based on last season’s usage with their former teams, this could easily change by the end of training camp.

Goaltenders

The Kraken elected to go with a somewhat unproven goaltending duo, yet their projections for next season are excellent based on the limited NHL data we have for them. Chris Driedger looks set to get an opportunity to take on the starter’s role.

Around the League

As we dive into impacts around the league, here are a few key points to remember about how the projections are generated:

UFAs have been removed from all rosters.
RFAs are included on all rosters, assuming they will return with their current teams.

Pacific Division

The Kraken’s depth propelled them to the top of the Pacific Division projections. While most team projections were unaffected due to Seattle picking depth players or UFAs, the Calgary Flames took a big hit with the loss of captain Mark Giordano. While they now have nearly $7M in additional cap space to help fill the hole, the Flames 16 point drop to their point percentage was the largest skater induced impact of the expansion draft.

Central Division

The Minnesota Wild took the biggest hit to their team projection in the Central Division with the loss of defenseman Carson Soucy. Following the Wild’s buyout of Ryan Suter, Soucy was projected to be in the Wild’s top four. Despite dealing away Ryan Graves ahead of the draft, the Colorado Avalanche also took a sizable hit to their team projection with the loss of Joonas Donskoi.

Atlantic Division

Similar to the Pacific, the projections for many teams in the Atlantic division were unaffected due to the Kraken selecting depth players and UFAs. The Toronto Maple Leafs took the biggest hit, losing Jared McCann after acquiring him ahead of the roster freeze which essentially kept their roster intact in the big picture. Seattle took Yanni Gourde from the Tampa Bay Lightning for the other significant impact in the division.

Metropolitan Division

The Washington Capitals took the largest overall hit to their 21/22 team projection after losing goaltender Vitek Vanacek. With only 2 goaltenders influencing the team save percentage, this is the position most susceptible to cause large fluctuations in team projections and we see it play out here. Otherwise, the top four teams in the division were all hit with moderate impacts.