We’re at the midway point of the 23/24 season. Let’s take a look at where things stand in the Pacific Division.
Preseason Projections
We’ll start with a look back at the Pacific Division season opening projections. The Golden Knights, Oilers and Flames looked the strongest on paper going into the season and were projected to earn the three divisional playoff berths. The Kraken and Kings were not far behind and looked like the most likely to battle for wild card berths. The Canucks and Sharks trailed in the projected wild card race while the Ducks were projected to be in the depths of the Pacific.
Mid-Season Status
While the model projection is a prediction of the most likely outcome, there are always a few surprises in the actual results. The Pacific Division has been full of them this year so far, and the current standings look a fair bit different than the season opening projection so far.
Vancouver Canucks (61 pts – 0.709 P%): The Canucks were high flying in the first half of the season. They’re just breaking even in 5v5 xG share but very strong finishing and goaltending have hidden that in a big way. Everything has been working in Vancouver through the first half and it has them sitting at the top of the division with an 8 point cushion on second place.
#2 Vegas Golden Knights (53 pts, 0.616 P%): The Golden Knights were expected to be fighting for top spot in the division and, as of the midpoint of the season, they are. A recent injury fueled slide has seen them drop 8 points back of the Canucks. Goaltending has been a strength and they could be dangerous if they can get healthy.
#3 Los Angeles Kings (48 pts, 0.615 P%): The Kings been very good at controlling 5v5 play this season, with a large 5v5 xG share advantage. Converting those chances into actual goals is rearing it’s head again this season, with their finishing trending downward since about the 10 game mark. The powerplay isn’t helping much either, although it’s outpacing what they give up on the penalty kill.
#4 Edmonton Oilers (47 pts, 0.603 P%): The Oilers are another strong 5v5 team in terms of controlling xG share. Early struggles with finishing and goaltending cost Jay Woodcroft his post as Head Coach as the Oilers fell so far back their playoff hopes were in serious question by the end of October. Their PDO has rebounded under replacement bench boss Chris Knoblauch and the penalty kill has also improved and the surging Oilers are now coming for the Kings and Golden Knights lunch money.
#5 Seattle Kraken (47 pts, 0.560 P%): The Kraken struggled out of the gate and clawed their way back into the middle of the standings by the 20 game mark. They’ve been streaky in the second quarter, with a significant losing stretch followed by an even longer climb back up, led by an incredible stretch of play from Joey Daccord.
#6 Calgary Flames (45 pts – 0.523 P%): The Flames had nearly as rough a start as their provincial rivals. Unlike the Oilers, however, they are just holding their own in 5v5 xG share. Some improved finishing and stellar play from Jacob Markstrom have helped them claw their way back into the playoff chase.
#7 Anaheim Ducks (29 pts, 0.345 P%): The Ducks had a strong run early on, backed by some vintage John Gibson performances. Their true strength has slowly been revealed as the season has gone on, though and they’ve sunk down the Pacific standings over the second quarter. Key injuries have played their part but the Ducks still have a long ways to go to get back to contender status.
#8 San Jose Sharks (23 pts, 0.267 P%): The Sharks are swimming in the depths of the Pacific at the midpoint of the season. It’s dark down there.
Mid Season Projections
The first half of the season came with a few surprises. This season’s data has also been incorporated into the model to update projected team strengths for the rest of the season. With half a season worth of points in the bank and another half season projected, what do the projected standings look like now?
The Pacific Division landscape has changed a bit since the season opening projections. The model still sees the Canucks as a slightly above average team but they’ve banked enough points already that they look comfortable in top spot.
The other two divisional playoff seeds look like a battle between three teams: the Golden Knights, Oilers and Kings. The Golden Knights and Oilers are where we expected them to be from the season opening projections, while the Kings are exceeding their projection slightly. The team that misses out on the divisional seeds looks like the favorite from the Pacific to take a wild card spot.
The Flames have taken the biggest drop in the projected standings since the beginning of the season and they join the Kraken as teams that look like they can hang in the playoff chase but most likely have too big a hill to climb. The Ducks sit much where they were expected to, while the Sharks have sunk past them to the bottom of the Pacific.
