We’re at the midway point of the 23/24 season. Let’s take a look at where things stand in the Atlantic Division.
Preseason Projections
Going into the season, it looked like the incumbent four playoff teams’ hold on the Atlantic was more precarious than it had been for quite a few years. The Panthers, Maple Leafs, Bruins, and Lightning were still projected to finish at the top of the division but by a much smaller margin than the previous few seasons. The Red Wings looked like the strongest challenger and, if things went right for them, looked like they could unseat one of the top four for a playoff spot. The model was less sure about the Senators and Sabres, putting them in trailing positions in the wild card chase, while the rebuilding Canadiens were predicted to pull up the rear.
Mid-Season Status
The Atlantic Division has been in line with the season opening projections through the first half of the season in many respects. Let’s look through the current standings.
#1 Boston Bruins (61 pts – 0.709 P%): The Bruins may have lost their top 2 centers from last season, but there’s was still plenty to like about this year’s squad. They’ve shown us why in the first half, charging out to the division lead at the midway point. Their 5v5 xG share isn’t as strong as in recent years, though, which is cause for some concern. Their goaltending has been outstanding again and, alongside excellent special teams, has been enough to put plenty of points in the bank to this point.
#2 Florida Panthers (57 pts, 0.663 P%): The Panthers were projected to top the Atlantic Division at the outset of the season and they’re right there now. They were slow out of the gate, but found their groove and they’re closing the gap on the Bruins of late. An improving 5v5 xG share is helping fuel their strong record, and if their finishing ever comes around they could be very dangerous.
#3 Toronto Maple Leafs (50 pts, 0.610 P%): The Maple Leafs changed direction in the front office last summer, but the rumors of a major change to the roster didn’t come to fruition. This year’s squad looks reminiscent of recent seasons with the same core group back and they’re chugging along through the regular season once again. We’ve heard much about their poor goaltending in the first half, although the numbers don’t bear that out. I’d be more concerned about the break even 5v5 xG share that will be tested against stronger competition come playoff time.
#4 Detroit Red Wings (49 pts, 0.570 P%): The Red Wings looked like the team that had the best chance to unseat one of the incumbent Atlantic playoff teams to open the season. At the midpoint, they look intent on keeping us guessing if they can hold on. They stumbled after a red hot start and sit neck-and-neck with the Lightning at this stage. Their finishing has been lights out all season and if it gives out, they could be in for a rough ride. Their 5v5 xG share is trending the wrong direction, as has their goaltending of late.
#5 Tampa Bay Lightning (49 pts, 0.557 P%): The Lightning look more vulnerable than they have for a long time. Their 5v5 xG share has settling in near 50%, while finishing and goaltending are slightly below break even. A strong special teams advantage has helped them stay afloat through the first half.
#6 Buffalo Sabres (42 pts – 0.477 P%): The model didn’t expect the Sabres to be in the mix for the playoffs this season. They’re chugging along about where expected with 5v5 numbers that look quite similar to the fading Lightning.
#7 Montreal Canadiens (41pts, 0.488 P%): The Canadiens went headed into the season in full rebuild mode. A hot start has cooled off, as they’ve consistently lost the xG battle at 5v5 and have a significant deficit on special teams. If only the goaltending wasn’t lights out, they’d have a real chance for another first overall pick.
#8 Ottawa Senators (30 pts, 0.395 P%): The Senators have a new owner, President of Hockey Operations, GM and Head Coach.
Mid Season Projections
The first half of the season has fallen reasonably well in line with the season opening projections and there isn’t much reason to think that’s going to change in the second half. The Bruins, Panthers and Leafs look poised to stay in their lanes. The interesting battle looks like it may be between the Red Wings and Lightning, although the Metropolitan Division may have a say in whether either team can snag a wild card berth. The Sabres, Habs and Sens are well back and would be best off focusing their attention on the trade deadline with an eye towards the future.
