Today’s division snapshot focuses on the Metropolitan Division. I last checked in on the Metro in late November when the New Jersey Devils were in the midst of their historic win streak. The top of the standings have tightened up significantly since then. Let’s take a look at how the Metropolitan landscape has evolved over the past month, with data including games played up to December 17.
Metropolitan Division Projected Standings
1 – New Jersey Devils
Change in Division Rank: +0
The New Jersey Devils continue to lead the Metropolitan Division and hold onto top spot in the projected standings as well. The massive lead they had a month ago has all but disappeared though as they’ve come back to earth after tying the franchise record with a 13 game win streak. Now embroiled in a 5 game losing streak, the Devils are facing some adversity but it’s far from time to push the panic button. They continue to hold a large edge in expected goal share at 5v5 on most nights and their goaltending continues to be better than break even.
Nico Hischier has elevated himself to a top line projected impact with his play through the first third of the season. He’s outperformed his projected offensive impact while maintaining a strong defensive impact. With Jack Hughes trending toward superstar status, Hischier’s strong play give the Devils an incredible 1-2 punch at center.
2 – Carolina Hurricanes
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Carolina Hurricanes stay in second spot in the projected standings. They’ve closed the gap with the Devils by going on a 9-0-1 run in their last 10 while the Devils have cooled off. Their poor finishing persists, but they generate such a large advantage in 5v5 expected goals that they’re still well positioned to string together wins.
Brady Skjei has been a key piece in the Hurricanes recent strong form. He sits 4th among NHL defensemen in 5v5 xGA/60 and has contributed offensively at the same time. His projected impact has been rising with this year’s results and he now has borderline top pair projected impact.
3 – Pittsburgh Penguins
Change in Division Rank: +0
All three divisional playoff berths see no change since our last snapshot as the Pittsburgh Penguins hold their position as well. Their expected goal share has been consistently strong over the past month. A weakening trend in finishing has been offset by an upward trend in goaltending. Special teams have strengthened on both the powerplay and penalty kill and the Penguins have stuck with the Hurricanes in closing the gap with the Devils at the top of the division.
Jake Guentzel has led the way offensively for the Penguins recently, with 13 points in the last 10 games, including a team leading 6 5v5 points over that span.
4 – New York Islanders
Change in Division Rank: +0
The New York Islanders hold onto fourth spot in the projected standings, although it’s a precipitous lead over the chasing teams. The Rangers have leapfrogged the Isles in the current standings and it’s projected team strength keeping the Isles in front of the full season projection. Their 5v5 expected goal share continues to be a concern while excellent goaltending appears to be the primary driver of the Isles success so far.
Ilya Sorokin is having another strong season and has given the Islanders a chance to win on most nights. Backup Semyon Varlamov is also having a great season and now sits 3rd in the NHL in GSAx/60 at 5v5. He has a 0.957 SV% at 5v5 in his last 5 games, leading to an upward trending projected impact.
5 – Washington Capitals
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Washington Capitals move up one spot in the full season projections as they continue to improve their 5v5 expected goal share. They’ve been winning games of late as well as the improvement pays some dividends for the effort. They’ve jumped back into the wild card race and are still missing a number of key players due to injury.
Alex Ovechkin scored his 800th NHL goal last week, becoming just the third player ever to accomplish that feat. He did it in in style as well, with a hattrick goal as his 800th marker. He continues to perform at a high level and it looks like there are plenty more in store as he chases Wayne Gretzky’s all time record.
6 – New York Rangers
Change in Division Rank: +1
The New York Rangers move up one spot in the projected standings but there’s reason for concern for their long term performance. In our last snapshot, we noticed a dwindling 5v5 expected goal share and that trend has continued over the month since. Recent struggles at 5v5 have seen their season-to-date 5v5 GF% drop to just over 50%. Strong finishing and improving special teams over the past month have helped cover up the declining 5v5 play but it’s a trend they’ll want to turn around soon.
If the Rangers are able to turn their 5v5 game around, the kids may be the key. Filip Chytil has started the season strong, bringing his projected impact up to a borderline top line impact. His defensive impact has been an important part of that rise, with a 5v5 xGA/60 that is significantly better than average.
7 – Philadelphia Flyers
Change in Division Rank: -2
The Philadelphia Flyers continue to cascade down both the current and projected standings. Goaltending continues to be outstanding but the Flyers huge 5v5 deficit in expected goal share has been exposed since our last snapshot and the Flyers have tumbled down the standings as a result. No longer with enough points in the bank to see them higher in the current standings, their full season projection has fallen off the playoff pace as well.
Carter Hart continues to carry the Flyers on his back. His return to form has faded slightly over the past month but his current level is still incredible.
8 – Columbus Blue Jackets
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Columbus Blue Jackets have struggled this season, although their results have been crated by abysmal goaltending. Goaltending has improved since our last snapshot, but still sits nearly a full goal saved below expected per 60 at 5v5.
One bright spot for the Blue Jackets has been the play of rookie Kent Johnson. Johnson is off to a good start to his NHL career and some strong offensive contributions thus far have seen his projected impact rise as his first season of NHL data enters the model.
More
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Free Preview! The New York Rangers team page has been unlocked as a free preview this week. You’ll find player plots for all players on the full strength roster as well as some long term team projections. Check it out here.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
