Today we’re checking in on the Metropolitan Division. Our last snapshot was in late October, just a couple of weeks into the season. Some teams have separated themselves from the pack since then and we have a more significant sample size of games played this season.
With this week’s player projection updates, there were 206 forwards, 158 defensemen and 60 goaltenders over the 200 5v5 minute mark to get a projection update using this season’s data. It’s now the majority of NHLers who fall in this category, so we’re getting a clearer picture of how early season performance is impacting team projections.
Metropolitan Division Projected Standings
The Metropolitan Division was projected to be incredibly tight going into the season and remained that way at our first check in during the season in late October. Since then, we’ve seen a few teams separate themselves from the pack. The New Jersey Devils and Carolina Hurricanes are now clear favorites in the division, while the Columbus Blue Jackets have begun to fall well off the pace.
1 – New Jersey Devils
Change in Division Rank: +2
When we last checked in on the Metropolitan Division, the Devils were off to a mediocre start thanks mostly to poor finishing and goaltending early in the season. Both seemed unsustainable in the long term and we’ve seen a correction in both areas since. The Devils have continued to dominate 5v5 play and it has led to a 12 game win streak (and counting) that sees them positioned at the top of both the current and projected standings.
There are plenty of Devils off to strong starts this season and Jack Hughes is no exception. He’s helped lead the charge for New Jersey and has put up excellent offensive and defensive numbers so far this season. He’s looked like a legitimate top line forward this season and the model is starting to adjust in that direction.
2 – Carolina Hurricanes
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Hurricanes drop a spot in the projected standings since our last snapshot. It’s through no fault of their own, though. While the Devils have enjoyed their 12 game win streak, the Canes have continued to play excellent 5v5 hockey that has seen them also put dominant 5v5 expected goal shares. They’ve struggled to finish recently, but have still continued to roll.
Andrei Svechnikov has had a hot hand to start the season. He leads NHL forwards in 5v5 G/60 and his strong performance this season has pushed his projected impact up into legitimate top line territory.
3 – Pittsburgh Penguins
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Penguins got off to a hot start this season, with a strong expected goal share supplemented by strong finishing and goaltending showing in our previous snapshot. Things nearly came of the rails shortly after that, as the Penguins went on a 7 game losing skid. Big corrections in their finishing and goaltending were certainly part of the cause and their expected goal share at 5v5 narrowed significantly as well.
Evgeni Malkin has been a big factor for the Penguins this season, as he looks to silence the doubters after signing a big extension this summer. Malkin’s offensive results are strong across the board this season and he’s been well above average in defensive impact as well.
4 – New York Islanders
Change in Division Rank: +3
Things weren’t looking great for the Islanders at our last snapshot. They lost the 5v5 expected goal battle early in the season, leading to some mediocre results. They improved in that area significantly for a couple of weeks, although they’ve slipped into a significant deficit on the season as their offense has not been generating much of late. Goaltending has helped them out, though, and they’ve pulled themselves into the middle of the pack with their recent play.
Mat Barzal finally netted his first goal of the season this week. He’s never looked better as a playmaker, though, and a strong start to the season has seen his projected impact creep upward.
5 – Philadelphia Flyers
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Flyers rode some incredibly hot goaltending and strong finishing to position themselves near the top of the Metropolitan Division early this season. Since our last snapshot, the bottom has fallen out on their finishing and, while it’s still been very good, goaltending has trended toward more sustainable levels. Those corrections have allowed the cracks to show in the Flyers game. They’ve struggled mightily in expected goal share at 5v5 all season and the results are starting to show with the Flyers now on a 6 game losing skid.
One bright spot for the Flyers has been defenseman Nick Seeler. The 29 year old has stepped into a role as a regular NHL defenseman and he’s performed well this season. With strong two-way impacts this season, his projected impact has skyrocketed with the first update of the season. There should be some cautious optimism here since his projected is still based on quite a small sample of NHL work.
6 – Washington Capitals
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Capitals look vulnerable this season. They’ve narrowed the gap in their 5v5 expected goal share since our last snapshot, but it’s still negative on the season. They haven’t made up for it in other areas, either with both finishing and goaltending trending down of late. With plenty of key players out with injuries, how soon they start to get some healthy bodies back may decide their fate in the playoff race.
With injuries taking their toll on the forward group, Evgeny Kuznetsov has stepped up with a strong performance. He’s still looking for his first 5v5 goal of the season, but he’s been been an excellent set up man so far.
7 – New York Rangers
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Rangers have continued to post strong 5v5 expected goal shares since our last snapshot, which is a welcome contrast to last season. It hasn’t translated into stronger results yet, though, as the Rangers have struggled to convert their chances. The model is not convinced yet that the Rangers will sustain their 5v5 expected goals for rate, which is the main reason their full season projection is still very mediocre.
Captain Jacob Trouba has gotten off to a solid start this season. His results so far this season have helped pull his projection up significantly.
8 – Columbus Blue Jackets
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Blue Jackets have been decimated by injuries this season. Weak 5v5 expected goal shares have persisted as the Blue Jackets plug holes in their roster. Their goaltending has been abysmal and they would likely be well out of the race in the Metropolitan Division if it weren’t for some strong finishing this season.
Zach Werenski is one of the Blue Jackets casualties and is expected to be out for the season. It’s doubly unfortunate after Werenski jumped out of the gate with a great start to the season. His projection was trending up well above the minimum benchmark for top pair defensemen before he was injured.
More
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Free Preview! The New Jersey Devils team page has been unlocked as a free preview this week. You’ll find player plots for all players on the full strength roster as well as some long term team projections. Check it out here.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
