What a difference a month can make. I last checked in on the Atlantic Division in early November. The Sabres were rolling. The Maple Leafs were reeling. Early season trends that were unstainable have faded away and we’re getting a better picture of how the Atlantic is shaping up through a little more than a quarter season.
Atlantic Division Projected Standings
The Bruins have maintained their torrid pace since our last update and are still the clear favorites in the projected standings. The Maple Leafs have righted the ship and now sit ahead of the other two Atlantic Division incumbent playoff teams in the projected standings. Buffalo’s hot start has faded away and they continue to sit at the bottom of the projections, just below the Senators.
1 – Boston Bruins
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Bruins have continued their frenetic pace since our last snapshot. They continue to drive play at 5v5, providing a strong foundation for their success. Their finishing and goaltending have both also been excellent so far this season, which has made them too much to handle on most nights. Oh, and their special teams are good too.
The Bruins acquired Pavel Zacha in an offseason trade with the Devils this past summer. The early returns have been good for Zacha and the Bruins, as Zacha is among the league leaders in 5v5 A/60. He’s had a strong defensive impact as well, pushing his projected impact up into the top six range.
2 – Toronto Maple Leafs
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Maple Leafs were struggling when we last checked in on the Atlantic, yet their underlying numbers suggested better fortunes awaited them if they held course. Things look a lot better in Toronto in this snapshot as the Leafs have seen results fall their way more regularly and they now sit second in both the current and projected standings. A big correction in 5v5 finishing since our last check-in is the biggest reason for the change in fortunes.
Mitch Marner was taking some heat in the media when we took out last snapshot. Since then, he’s been red hot and now has the longest point streak in Maple Leafs history. At 19 games and counting, Marner is a big part of the Leafs’ success.
3 – Florida Panthers
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Panthers drop a spot in the projected standings since our last snapshot, due mostly to the Maple Leafs strong play of late. The Panthers remain the top rated team in the model but can’t seem to find consistent results. They continue to drive 5v5 play and have average finishing and goaltending.
Matthew Tkachuk has certainly not been the reason the Panthers have struggled to find consistency this season. He has been outstanding since arriving in Sunrise in the offseason blockbuster trade with the Calgary Flames. Tkachuk has elevated his already elite projected impact with a great start to the year.
4 – Tampa Bay Lightning
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Lightning have continued to improve their 5v5 expected goal share, a trend we noticed starting in the last snapshot. Their expected goal share is now firmly in positive territory, which should lead to success. Finishing has become an issue in recent weeks, however, and it’s a contributing factor in the Lightning dropping a spot in the projected standings.
One factor in the Lightning’s struggle to finish chances has been a slow start from Nikita Kucherov’s goal production. He’s shooting just 6.12% at 5v5 this season, down from the 12-15% range he’s been in since his rookie season. When Kucherov inevitably heats up, so will the Lightning’s finishing.
5 – Detroit Red Wings
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Red Wings have fallen out of the top three automatic divisional playoff spots since our last snapshot, and maintain their 5th place position in the projected standings. Their negative expected goal share at 5v5 seems to be coming home to roost. Their expected goals for has been trending upward, but not enough to overcome a mediocre defense.
The offseason signing of UFA David Perron is paying dividends for the Red Wings. Perron has been average defensively, while outperforming offensive projections by a wide margin. It’s pushed his projected impact up slightly since the start of the season.
6 – Montreal Canadiens
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Canadiens are still playing 0.500 hockey. Much like we saw in the last snapshot, there is plenty of reason for concern for the long term sustainability of their results, however. With finishing regression toward average in recent weeks, their 5v5 expected goal deficit is in danger of becoming more exposed.
Cole Caufield is brining hope to the Canadiens fan base on a nightly basis. He’s piling up goals and his projected impact is trending upward, exactly as we’d like to see from a young, developing player. His 13.58% 5v5 shooting percentage isn’t egregious either. It’s up only slightly from last season and is within the range we’d expect from an elite shooter.
7 – Ottawa Senators
Change in Division Rank: +0
It’s been a rough month in Ottawa since our last snapshot. The Senators have failed to make any headway in the standings, despite putting up favorable 5v5 expected goal rates and having quality goaltending most nights. A steady downward trend seems to be their undoing. If there’s any good news, it’s that their current finishing is probably too low to be sustainable and there should be a correction coming.
Alex DeBrincat’s numbers epitomize the Senators finishing struggles. Shooting just 3.39% at 5v5 this season, DeBrincat is certifiably cold.
8 – Buffalo Sabres
Change in Division Rank: +0
In our last snapshot, we saw impeccable vibes radiating from Buffalo yet the Sabres still held down 8th spot in the Atlantic Division projected standings. The vibes over the past month have been decidedly more subdued as the Sabres have fallen off the pace. Their 5v5 expected goal share is holding steady at roughly break even, but simultaneous corrections from their early season hot finishing and goaltending have given us a more realistic view of the current team’s strength.
Despite the Sabres more pedestrian recent results, Tage Thompson has continued his meteoric rise into NHL stardom. Thompson continues to land on highlight reels on a regular basis. His sub 12% shooting at 5v5 doesn’t suggest a big correction is coming in his goal scoring rate either.
More Plots
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse team plots for all 32 teams? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Free Preview! The Toronto Maple Leafs team page has been unlocked as a free preview this week. You’ll find player plots for all player on the full strength roster as well as some long term team projections. Check it out here.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
