The Los Angeles Kings got off to a wild start to the season, participating in a number of high scoring affairs early on. They’ve settled into a groove more recently and head into Monday’s divisional matchup with the Calgary Flames on a four game win streak and have points in seven of their last eight games.
My last check-in on the Kings was around the start of training camp. At the time, it looked like a tall task for the Kings to return to the playoffs this season. Now 17 games into their season, they sit in second place in the Pacific Division. Let’s take a look at their early season success.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Performance
The Kings are off to a 10-6-1 start to the season and trail only the red hot Vegas Golden Knights in the Pacific Division. While the long term outlook for the Kings looked good in the preseason synopsis, the current roster didn’t inspire a lot of confidence. What’s led to their early success? And is it sustainable?
Looking at their key team metrics starts to give us some insight. The Kings struggled with expected goal share at 5v5 very early in the season, however it’s been trending in a very positive direction lately. Cumulatively on the season, they’re generating about 0.5 xG/60 more than they give up which is a great sign that their recent string of success has been earned.
The Kings started the season with some extremely hot finishing coupled with very lackluster goaltending. That combination explains the outburst of goals we saw in their first handful of games. The extreme nature of the results in both areas suggested regression was due and percentages have been trending toward more sustainable levels in both areas recently.
Top Performers
Gabe Vilardi is off to one of the best starts to the 22/23 season in the NHL. He’s been on fire offensively, scoring nearly 2 goals per 60 at 5v5 so far which is 5th among NHL forwards with at least 150 5v5 minutes. He’s not just been a goal scoring machine, however, as he’s also chipped in as a playmaker and his defensive impact is among the strongest in the NHL. His 5v5 xGA/60 sits 8th among NHL forwards with at least 150 5v5 minutes. His strong play out of the gate sees his projected impact taking a big jump with the first update incorporating this season’s data.
Another young player making his presence felt for the Kings is sophomore Sean Durzi. He’s already potted a couple of 5v5 goals and he’s been a steady presence on the Kings blueline with a 5v5 xGA/60 in the top quartile for NHL defensemen. Like Vilardi, the first in-season update to Durzi’s projected impact sees a healthy upward jump.
One of the biggest potential faults the model saw with the Kings roster going into the season was their goaltending. Cal Peterson has struggled mightily to start the season and veteran Jonathan Quick has been key to the Kings early success. His performance is very close to projected so far and he’s been steady enough to see a small upward bump in his projected impact this week while stabilizing the crease for the Kings.
2022 Offseason Moves – Hindsight Edition
The Kings biggest offseason move was the acquisition of Kevin Fiala early in the offseason. The move looked like a good one for the Kings, who needed stronger finishing than last season. While Fiala’s goal scoring is trending below the projection so far, his overall impact has been strong as he’s succeeded as more of a playmaker. All in, he’s added some much needed offense and the upward trend in projected impact is a good sign for the Kings.
Alex Edler was another offseason acquisition we looked at in the preseason Kings synopsis. The veteran returned to the Kings as a free agent and should help acclimate the Kings up and coming defensemen into the NHL. He’s been a steady presence so far.
2022-2023 Roster Profile Updates
We’re starting to see a larger number of players cross the 200 5v5 minute mark on the season, which means their player projections start to incorporate this season’s data. For the Kings, it’s largely been good news with a number of strong performances pushing their team profile upward. The most noticeable change has been in their even strength offense rating, which has improved significantly. With a young team, we should expect development through the season. With players like Vilardi and Durzi showing big improvements early, the outlook for the Kings is encouraging.
Pacific Division Landscape
While the Kings sit in second place in the Pacific Division currently, it’s not a terribly comfortable position. The Vegas Golden Knights have taken the division by storm and have opened a massive lead in the division. Behind the Kings, the Seattle Kraken, Edmonton Oiler, Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames are all lurking. All four teams have game(s) in hand over the Kings, along with strong roster profiles which puts all five teams very tightly grouped in the projected standings. The Kings’ strong start has positioned them well but there’s a battle brewing in the Pacific Division playoff race. Check out yesterday’s Pacific Division Snapshot for a more comprehensive look at the projected division standings.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
