In our last Pacific Division Snapshot, we looked at how the landscape was shaping up during training camp. With two weeks of regular season games in the books, we’re starting to see if teams are performing how we expected. Sample sizes are still small though and while some early performances are sustainable, it’s far from a universal truth.
Let’s take a look through the updated Pacific Division projected standings along with a look at early season trends for each team, with actual data for games played through October 22.
One thing to keep in mind is that the projections are built up from the player level and, aside from 5 goaltenders league-wide, we don’t have enough actual data for 22/23 to start updating player projections yet. Most of the change in the projected standings at this stage is due to actual win/loss records and roster shuffling based on actual player usage.
Pacific Division Projected Standings
1 – Vegas Golden Knights
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Golden Knights are 4-2-0 on the season and sit tied with the Flames atop the current division standings. They retain top spot in the projections based on their projected roster strength and their early results look relatively sustainable. They’ve put together a positive expected goal share at 5v5, providing a solid basis to build on. Goaltending was a big question going into the season and Logan Thompson and Adin Hill have answered the bell thus far.
Logan Thompson has had the larger workload among the Vegas goaltenders, playing 4 of the first 6 games. His strong play down the stretch last season led to a starting goaltender projection this season and, so far, he hasn’t disappointed. With his GSAx/60 sitting well over break even and near the 75th percentile, he’s given the Golden Knights a chance when called upon.
2 – Calgary Flames
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Flames are off to a hot start. They won their home opener for the first time in over a decade and ran the gauntlet through a number of cup contenders to a 4-1-0 record through five games. A loss to the Sabres is the only blemish on their record so far, with wins over the Avs, Oilers, Golden Knights and Hurricanes. Strong play at 5v5 and an advantage on special teams have help mask some shaky (at times) goaltending. There’s a good chance their goaltending will rebound to some degree with a larger sample size and the Flames look like a formidable opponent early.
With the loss of last season’s two leading scorers, one question surrounding the Flames going into the season was how they would replace that offense. In the early going, the answer is…Brett Ritchie?! Ritchie is tied for the team lead with a pair of 5v5 goals and, along with Milan Lucic and Kevin Rooney, has played on a fourth line that has looked much stronger than many expected so far.
3 – Vancouver Canucks
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Canucks move up one spot in the projections, but all is not well in Vancouver. The Canucks are winless in 6 tries and the wheels are in danger of coming completely off before the calendar turns to November. The Canucks still have a talented group however, and could still remain in the playoff picture if they can find a way to turn their momentum around. The penalty kill has been a big problem area early and they need to find a way to stop the bleeding there. The also need to improve over their week 2 results at 5v5, where they lost a lot of ground in expected goal share.
Thatcher Demko has seen plenty of action through the first two weeks of the season and is one of five goaltenders who crossed the 200 5v5 minutes mark this week, which means we have enough 22/23 season data to start incorporating it into his player projection. Like many of the Canucks, Demko’s start hasn’t been quite where we expected and it’s led to a slight drop in his projected impact. It’s still early, though, and Demko’s play in recent seasons provides plenty of reason to believe this is just a small bump in the road.
4 – Edmonton Oilers
Change in Division Rank: -2
The Oilers powerplay was lethal to start the season and helped them cover up a large 5v5 expected goal share deficit in week 1. Week 2 saw them improve significantly in their 5v5 play, however their powerplay came down to earth and we saw big, offsetting swings in 5v5 finishing and 5v5 goaltending. All told, the Oilers have stumbled out of the blocks with a 2-3-0 record as they have struggle to put it all together at once early in the season.
Connor McDavid has 10 points in 5 games, but only 3 have come at 5v5. His 5v5 results seem to be a microcosm of the team’s, with standout 5v5 results hard to find at this stage. It’s still early and if we can glean anything from past seasons, it’s that a couple of bounces his way could send McDavid and the Oilers on a lengthy heater.
5 – Seattle Kraken
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Kraken were undone by poor goaltending in their inaugural season, snuffing out some relatively good results in the expected goals battle. Two weeks into season 2, the Kraken are putting up a strong xG% at 5v5 once again. This time, however, it’s finishing that’s been their undoing. It’s an issue that’s likely to be temporary, at least to this level, which bodes well for Seattle’s chances of staying in the playoff race this season.
Offseason acquisition Oliver Bjorkstrand has posted some good results in his first few games in a Kraken sweater, outperforming both offensive and defensive impact projections at 5v5. Like the team, he’s been snake bitten to start the year though. He’s still looking for his first 5v5 goal despite 23 shots and an ixG of 1.77.
6 – San Jose Sharks
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Sharks 2-6-0 record isn’t pretty and neither are their key team metrics. They’ve been outplayed at 5v5, while they’ve lost more ground due to poor finishing and poor goaltending. The penalty kill has been the biggest success so far, giving the Sharks a slight edge over their opposition on special teams despite a relatively unsuccessful powerplay.
Erik Karlsson has been a bright spot for the Sharks to start the season. He’s outperforming his offensive projections thus far and leads the league in 5v5 TOI.
7 – Anaheim Ducks
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Ducks have been leaky defensively to start the season, giving up roughly 3.5 xGA/60 at 5v5. Goaltending hasn’t been able to make up the difference and the Ducks are off to a slow start with a 1-4-1 record. It’s a much different position than last season, when a young Ducks team got off to a hot start, and it will be interesting to see how they respond.
One player who isn’t off to a slow start is Troy Terry. He’s found the scoresheet regularly so far this season and has had a strong impact through 5 games.
8 – Los Angeles Kings
Change in Division Rank: -2
It’s been a mixed bag for the Kings to start the season. Their 5v5 expected goal share is concerning, although it improved significantly in week 2. Goaltending has been less than ideal. Finishing has been exceptional. Altogether, it’s led to a 3-4-0 record and we’re still trying to figure out exactly what the Kings are this season.
Gabe Vilardi, on the other hand, has left us little room for doubt as to what he is this season: an NHL regular. He’s found the scoresheet regularly so far and has had a strong defensive impact to complement his offensive output.
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Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
