The Columbus Blue Jackets were involved in one of the most surprising UFA signings in recent memory. Can Johnny Gaudreau help them get back to the postseason?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Blue Jackets had an underwhelming 21/22 season. Finishing was a bright spot, but they struggled to control play at 5v5 and their goaltending allowed a lot more than expected. Adam Boqvist was a bright spot on the blue line in his first season in Columbus, leading all NHL defensemen in 5v5 G/60 and leading the Blue Jackets in 5v5 P/60. The Jackets attack had decent depth, with their top 10 forwards all sitting above league average in 5v5 P/60, but they lack high end production at the top of the lineup.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Blue Jackets shocked the hockey world by landing the biggest fish in the UFA pond this summer. After a career year last season, Johnny Gaudreau lands in Columbus with the highest projected impact among NHL forwards at 5v5. His dynamic offensive ability will no doubt be a boon to the Blue Jackets offense and we’ll see if the defensive ability he showed under Darryl Sutter last season will translate to a new system. There will also be a familiar face in the dressing room as the Blue Jackets also signed former Flame Erik Gudbranson.
Patrik Laine entered the offseason as an RFA in need of a new deal and the Blue Jackets inked him to a 4 year extension. He’s an elite goalscorer, but his game is rather one-dimensional in that regard and there’s a possibility of a very complementary skillset with the newly signed Gaudreau. The bad news with this deal was that it put Columbus into cap purgatory and they promptly sent Oliver Bjorkstrand to Seattle in a cap dump.
According to CapFriendly, the Blue Jackets have less than $1M in cap space. They’ve managed to bring their roster into cap compliance, but they very little flexibility heading into the season.
22/23 Roster
The Blue Jackets offseason splashes don’t appear to be enough to expect much more from the team than we saw last season. Gaudreau adds an elite forward talent that bolsters the offense, which looks above average, but team defense is a real concern. They also head into 22/23 with the same goaltending tandem that put up sub-par results last season and the projections suggest they shouldn’t expect something different.
Metropolitan Division Landscape
The Metropolitan Division projections are jam packed. The Blue Jackets fall near the middle so, if things fall their way in terms of injuries and puck luck, they have a chance to be competitive. There are plenty of other teams in the same boat, however.
Long Term Outlook
The Blue Jackets appear to have a core set for the next few seasons and most of their roster are in or near their prime years. It’s conceivable that they fall into the perpetually average trap over the next few seasons, but a few prospects making the jump to the NHL could help change that.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
