The Tampa Bay Lightning’s run the past three seasons has been nothing short of spectacular. Back-to-back Stanley Cups followed by a third straight trip to the final where they fell to the Avalanche last season has left the Lightning with the most dominant 3 year stretch in the salary cap era.
Let’s take a look at a the Lightning’s 21/22 season, along with projections for the 22/23 season to see how likely they are to keep rolling with the current core.
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Lightning were a strong team at 5v5 in the 21/22 season, generating offense at a rate well above average while limiting chances against among the best teams in the league. Their finishing was potent, pushing their actual goals for into the top quartile in the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s steady presence in goal helped to limit finishing by opposing teams. Tampa’s special teams were also strong, with a powerplay and penalty kill that were both well above average. They battled with the Maple Leafs and Panthers for bragging rights in the Atlantic for most of the season, ultimately finishing third in the division.
Captain Steve Stamkos combined with Nikita Kucherov to lead the Lightning attack. Ross Colton had a strong rookie season as well, finishing 3rd among Lightning forwards in 5v5 P/60. Victor Hedman returned to form after an injury plagued 20/21 season and led the defense core in offensive production rates. Another key to Tampa’s success was the performance of the depth players they brought in to replace their cap casualties from last offseason. Corey Perry and Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare had the best 5v5 xGA/60 rates on the team and contributed offensively as well.
Playoffs
The Lightning were in tough in round 1 of the playoffs facing the Toronto Maple Leafs. Two of the NHL’s best teams in the regular season, the Lightning won the battle of the titans. After the first round win, it looked as though the Lightning were in cruise control as they dispatched the high-flying Panthers in 4 games. Ultimately, they fell short in the Stanley Cup Final as the Avalanche proved too much to handle. Goaltending and special teams were clear strengths through the Bolts’ playoff run.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
With the cap a factor for the Lightning again this offseason, their first significant move was to trade Ryan McDonagh to the Predators, with Philippe Myers and Grant Mismash coming the other way. With four years left at a $6.75M cap hit for McDonagh, the trade was clearly a cap dump. Yet there was more to it than just freeing up cap space for the Lightning. They moved a 33 year old defenseman before age related decline started to show in his numbers, maximizing his value and got a 25 year old defenseman in return. Myers hasn’t seemd to find a permanent home at the NHL level yet, but the model projects a strong impact in a 2nd or 3rd pair role based on a reasonable sample of work over the past three seasons.
The Lightning lost Ondrej Palat and Jan Rutta to unrestricted free agency, leaving a couple of holes in their roster. They signed Vladislav Namestnikov and Ian Cole in free agency, along with extending Nick Paul with a long term extension. Namestnikov is projected as a third line forward next season, while the model is not a fan of Paul. Cole looks like the best signing of the group, with a strong projected impact in a depth role.
22/23 Roster
The Lightning have a very similar roster to last season shaping as the 22/23 season approaches. They don’t have much room to maneuver, as CapFriendly has them more than $7M over the cap with a 21 player roster. It looks likely that they’ll manage the overage using Brent Seabrook’s LTIR contract just as they did last season.
The defense core, top end forward talent and a world-class starting goaltender are the Lightning’s strengths heading into the 22/23 campaign, while forward depth looks like their biggest weak point.
Central Division Landscape
The four teams that dominated the Atlantic Division in 21/22 are all projected to be strong again in 22/23. Things may get more interesting this season though, as the Detroit Red Wings look ready to take a step forward in their rebuild and challenge for a playoff spot. The Lightning look like a playoff team once again, but not a favorite in the division. As we’ve seen the past two years, though, they have the ability to turn it on in the playoffs as long as they get there.
Long Term Outlook
The Lightning of the past three seasons have arguably been the most dominant team of the salary cap era and they don’t look like they plan on giving up their contender status anytime soon. They have a core in their prime supported primarily by veterans on short term contracts. With the McDonagh trade this offseason, they’ve also shown that they’re looking at long term value when looking to solve current cap space problems.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
