After years of disappointing early exits, the Edmonton Oilers finally broke through in 21/22 and found some playoff success. Their run ended in the Western Conference Final but it was a big step forward for a team that had so far failed to find meaningful postseason success in the McDavid era.
Have the Oilers finally found a supporting cast that can help Connor McDavid find consistent playoff success? Let’s take a look at a the Oilers’ 21/22 season, along with projections for the 22/23 season to see how they stack up.
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Oilers’ 21/22 regular season was an eventful one. They were one of the hottest teams in the NHL out of the gate, but fell equally cold in the middle of the season. With a real danger of missing the playoffs looming, Edmonton made a coaching change that stabilized their performance and brought them into the playoffs playing well again.
In the aggregate, the Oilers were a decent team at 5v5 but it was their powerplay that made them lethal. Their powerplay was among the best in the NHL, helping cover up for sometimes questionable goaltending results.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl led the Oilers offensively at 5v5, along with Evander Kane after his mid-season signing. Evan Bouchard found a permanent home on the blueline and provided another weapon at the point. The defense corps was largely panned in many projections ahead of the season, however there were some nice surprises on the blue line. Cody Ceci had a strong season in a shutdown role and trade deadline acquisition Brett Kulak was a high impact player in his short time in Edmonton at the end of the season.
Playoffs
The Oilers entered the playoffs as the Pacific Division’s second seed and got a first round date with the upstart LA Kings. Special teams were a big factor in the first round, while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl put the team on their backs to pull out a game 7 victory.
The first playoff Battle of Alberta was next on the agenda, where the Oilers dispatched the rival Calgary Flames in an entertaining five game series. The Flames held an edge in play at 5v5, however Edmonton won the goaltending battle and Edmonton’s superstars had another outstanding series.
The Western Conference final brought the powerhouse Colorado Avalanche. The Oilers struggled to find consistency at 5v5 and the Avalanche were able to get to the Oiler’s goaltending.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Oilers had many of their core players locked up for at least another season, but there were a few departures early in the offseason. Zack Kassian was traded to Arizona at the draft in a cap dump deal and Duncan Keith announced his retirement. In addition, it’s expected that Mike Smith will spend the season on LTIR.
Goaltending was a concern for the Oilers last season and they were heavily rumored to be in the mix for some of the top free agent goaltenders. In the end, they landed Jack Campbell who signed a five year deal on the opening day of free agency. Campbell’s projection for next season is a capable starting goaltender and he should provide the Oilers with an upgrade in net, albeit at a hefty cap hit.
The Oilers added a couple of depth forwards in free agency in Mattias Janmark and Greg McKegg, however most of the remainder of their offseason work was extending players from their 21/22 squad. Evander Kane inked a new deal just prior to the opening of free agency and Brett Kulak returns on the blue line. Edmonton also found deals for their two most notable RFAs in Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto. Puljujarvi’s deal may be the most interesting as he looks set to return with the Oilers for the 22/23 season on a high value deal after trade rumors swirled once again early in the offseason.
Now sitting roughly $7M over the cap, it seems unlikely we see any more significant moves from the Oilers before training camp. With Oskar Klefblom and Mike Smith on LTIR, they can likely manage the cap with the current roster although they’ll have reduced flexibility in-season as a result.
22/23 Roster
The Oilers have a very similar roster set to return for the 22/23 season that went to the Western Conference Final last season. The addition of Jack Campbell in free agency, with Stuart Skinner looking like the probably backup gives them an upgrade in goal while much of the rest of the team remains intact from last season.
Game-breaking top-end forward talent and an above average goaltending tandem look like the Oilers’ strengths heading into the season while their defense corps looks like a potential liability. Overall, they look like an above average team, which may be good enough to make some noise in the Pacific Division.
Pacific Division Landscape
The Vegas Golden Knights are projected to be the top team in the Pacific Division after an injury plagued season cratered their hopes in 21/22. The Oilers are projected to be the top challenger, although the re-tooled Calgary Flames are in nearly a dead heat with Edmonton. The Vancouver Canucks are also close behind and could factor into the playoff picture.
Long Term Outlook
With Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid in their prime years and under contract for 3 and 4 years respectively, the time to win for Edmonton is now. While last season’s success was a welcome respite for Oiler fans, the long term outlook isn’t quite as rosy. The Oilers have a number of players on longer term contracts, with most of them players past their prime. They’ll have to be careful not to let age-related decline creep in without making some roster transactions to offset the impact in order to keep their window open.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
