I took an initial look at the Pacific Division landscape heading into the 2022 offseason in early June. With the draft now in the rear-view mirror and free agency opening in a few days, I’m taking a look at how the picture has changed over the past month. This update includes all transactions up to the end of the NHL entry draft.
For the analysis below, we’ll make a few key assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all RFAs will return to their current clubs. Their impact is included in the team projections, however no cap hit is included in the team totals. Obviously, some of their team’s cap space will be required to resign these players so we’ll make note of potential cap headaches where applicable. Second, all UFAs are removed from the rosters. Any resulting holes in the roster have been filled with replacement level players.
Pacific Division Projected Standings
The Golden Knights remain the team to beat in the Pacific Division. The Oilers and Kings have made the most notable moves since the last division snapshot. The Oilers gave up some roster strength to gain cap space and roster flexibility, while the Kings added to their team.
Let’s take a closer look at each team’s changes since the initial Pacific Division snapshot for the 2022-2023 season. I’ve included the current roster profile alongside the one from the previous update for comparison.
Vegas Golden Knights
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
The only notable transaction the Golden Knights made since our last update was moving Evgenii Dadonov to Montreal in exchange for Shea Weber’s LTIR contract. The move not only freed up $5M in cap space from Dadonov’s contract, but also gives them some additional flexibility to use LTIR from the start of the season. While Dadonov is projected with a second line impact, removing him from the roster had negligible effect on the Golden Knights overall roster strength.
Vegas still has work to do to maintain their current roster strength this offseason. They have 16 NHL level players under contract for next season, with $75.7M in cap space committed to them. They’re in a better spot that at the last snapshot, but it still wouldn’t be surprising to see them drop back slightly before opening night.
Edmonton Oilers
Change in Projected Standings Points: -2
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Oilers were facing a minor cap crunch when we last looked at them and have made some inroads on their cap situation since. They sent Zach Kassian to the Arizona Coyotes at the draft, offloading an inefficient contract. News also broke during the draft that Duncan Keith is retiring, freeing up another $5M in cap space.
The Oilers have taken a small step back in their projected roster strength with the removal of Kassian and Keith from the roster. They’re in a better position as a result, though, and are in a better position from a salary cap standpoint heading into free agency.
Calgary Flames
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Flames have not made any roster moves of note at the NHL level since the last update. All eyes remain on Johnny Gaudreau’s status as free agency looms.
Vancouver Canucks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
Similar to the Flames, the Canucks roster profile hasn’t changed. They did extend RFA Brock Boeser for 3 years, though, and they now have $73.5M committed to 18 contracts on the NHL roster next season.
San Jose Sharks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +3
Change in Division Rank: +2
Mike Greir’s first trade as GM was to send John Leonard to Nashville for Luke Kunin. The model is fond of the move, with Kunin’s projected impact greatly exceeding Leonard. The Sharks remain in cap purgatory though and it will take more shrewd moves to find much improvement this summer.
Los Angeles Kings
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Kings made the first big trade splash of the 2022 offseason, acquiring Kevin Fiala from the Wild without giving up an NHL roster player. Fiala projects as a top line forward and improves their forwards impact significantly. It’s a step in the right direction to improve their offensive impact.
After signing Fiala to an extension, the Kings still have room to maneuver. They now have $68.8M in cap space committed to 16 contracts.
Seattle Kraken
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: -2
Anther team that’s been quiet over the last month with no updates to the NHL roster.
Anaheim Ducks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Ducks continue to occupy the division basement, with no notable NHL roster moves since the last snapshot.
More
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse UFA player cards for the addition your favorite team needs? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
