In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Dougie Hamilton and the New Jersey Devils.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by New Jersey Devils:
- Dougie Hamilton (age 28): 7 year, $9M cap hit, NMC, M-NTC final 3 seasons)
Previous Check-ins:
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
I took a detailed look at Hamilton’s projected value as it looked at the time of the signing in the November 2021 check in. As a refresher, the Devils paid a premium to land the premier UFA of the 2021 offseason as we can see from the opportunity cost on the plot below. With plenty of cap space currently, it’s not an issue now but could complicate the Devils’ cap situation when their young stars start finishing their ELCs and look for raises.
2021-2022 Performance
In the November 2021 check-in, we saw that Hamilton was off to a good start with the Devils through his first 13 games. Unfortunately, things fell of the rails for him as he dealt with a broken jaw and broken toe later in the season. He ended up playing 62 games for the Devils in 21/22 and put up sub-par numbers by his standards. While his on-ice 5v5 GF/60 was above projected, his individual contribution was much lower than expected. His 5v5 primary assist rate was well below projected and his 5v5 goal rate took an even bigger hit. Luck looks to have been a factor as his 3.87% 5v5 shooting percentage was his lowest since his final season in Boston in 2014/15, despite putting up the best 5v5 ixG/60 of his career. Defense was also worse than projected, where team effects due to his move from a strong Hurricanes team to a young Devils squad were likely a factor.
2022-2023 Projections
While 21/22 was a down season for Hamilton, his projection for the 22/23 season remains strong. He projects as an elite top pair defenseman, with high-end goal scoring ability. With updates to the model for 22/23 along with updated value curves based on current contracts across the NHL, his value looks stronger than it did last summer as well. With his projected value climbing toward his cap hit, the opportunity cost to the Devils to keep Hamilton on the roster is roughly halved from the initial assessment.
The Verdict
Year 1 didn’t go the way the Devils or Hamilton had envisioned, although injuries seemed to be the major factor in derailing Hamilton’s first season as a Devil. To add insult to injury, the Devils weren’t able to make a push for the playoffs either. With another 6 years on the deal, both parties will be looking for a bounce back season in 22/23. The good news is that Hamilton’s projected impact remains strong heading into the 22/23 season so there is plenty of reason for optimism for a return to form.
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