Roster News Roundup: 2022-MAR-11 - Puck Luck Analytics

In the roster news roundup, we take a look at some of the more noteworthy roster moves from around the NHL from the perspective of the current set of models. Read on for insights on moves made since the last roster news roundup post.

For more on the models and the evaluation methods used, check out these posts/pages:

About the Tools – Provides a general overview of how the models work and a description of the plots seen on the team pages.
Player Value: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks), Part 4 (Future Value).
Determining Player Types – Describes the method used to group players by similar player types.
21/22 Season Projections – Main page for the 21/22 season projections with links to the team pages with greater detail.
22/23 Models – Detail on the improvements to the models for the 22/23 season
22/23 Season Projections – Main page for the 22/23 season projections. Updates will be made periodically as more 21/22 season data becomes available.

Trades

It’s been the proverbial calm before the storm on the trade front since our last update. Future considerations have changed hands twice, with depth goalies Michael McNiven (to CGY) and Alex Stalock (to SJS) getting new addresses in the process. Ten days to go until the trade deadline.

Extensions

Arizona Coyotes – Dysin Mayo

Dysin Mayo got an opportunity in Arizona early in the season and ran with it. He’s cemented himself as one of the Coyotes regulars and they rewarded him with an extension that helps to start filling out their 22/23 roster.

Extension Cap Hit: $950k
Length: 3 years
RFA Market Rate: $3.13M
22/23 Projected Impact: Replacement Level Offensive Defenseman
22/23 Projected Value: $3.58M

Arizona Coyotes – Travis Boyd

Travis Boyd has ridden some percentage luck to good results over his entire career, in both individual shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage. Both seem likely to regress eventually, but the consistent nature of the numbers over the past three seasons help the model see him quite favorably. The trend has continued this season with SH% of 22.0% and on-ice SH% of 14.18% at 5v5.

Extension Cap Hit: $1.75M
Length: 2 years
UFA Market Rate: $2.57M
22/23 Projected Impact: 3rd Line Offensive Forward
22/23 Projected Value: $3.89M

Seattle Kraken – Jared McCann

Jared McCann was widely heralded as one of Seattle’s best picks in the expansion draft. He hasn’t performed quite up to the level the model predicted this season, particularly considering his 17.44% individual shooting at 5v5 is likely to regress over the long term. He’s still been worth significantly more than his cap hit this season though and is in his early prime.

Extension Cap Hit: $5.00M
Length: 5 years
RFA Market Rate: $4.40M
22/23 Projected Impact: 1st Line Elite Goalscoring Forward
22/23 Projected Value: $5.30M

Philadelphia Flyers – Rasmus Ristolainen

Rasmus Ristolainen has long been maligned by analytic models. The Flyers clearly saw something they liked though and signed the 27 year old to a five year extension. Perhaps it’s his 6’4″ frame they value because his numbers don’t support the deal.

Extension Cap Hit: $5.10M
Length: 5 years
UFA Market Rate: $2.67M
22/23 Projected Impact: Replacement Level Depth Defenseman
22/23 Projected Value: $3.20M

Ristolainen’s new deal highlights the potential value advantage teams can find at the bottom end of their lineup. It’s seems perfectly logical to find 3rd pairing defensemen that have a cap hit near the league minimum. Yet, as we see with Ristolainen, there are still teams signing players with 3rd pair or lower impacts to large cap hits. These deals pull the left side of the value curves up, so teams that spend frugally on depth players are able to find exceptional value relative to the league average. Not only that, it also leaves them with more cap space to sign high impact players for the top of their lineup.