We’re now well into the 21/22 NHL season and longer term trends are starting to show in each team’s performance. With model projections giving us a reference point for how strong each team’s even strength offense was expected to be, let’s take a look at which teams have fallen in line with the projections and which have surprised.
Variance from the Model
Looking at the just the difference between predicted and actual 5v5 goals for rates, the Panthers, Wild, Avalanche, and Hurricanes are in a clear group outperforming the model by a wide margin. Based on their actual scoring rates, they also form a small group of elite offensive teams at 5v5. Of these four teams, the Wild were expected to be a below average team in terms of 5v5 scoring, the Panthers and Hurricanes above average, and the Avalanche elite.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Blackhawks, Canadiens and Canucks have the largest variances below their projections. While none of these teams were expected to be at the bottom of the league for 5v5 offense, none were expected to be better than average either.
So, which teams are the biggest surprises of the 21/22 season so far in terms of 5v5 offensive output?
Biggest Success
Leading- Minnesota Wild
While the Wild don’t have the largest variance, it’s not far behind the Panthers. With a projected below average 5v5 offense, the Wild’s success at filling the net this season has helped position themselves behind the Avalanche in the Central Division race at the midpoint of the season.
The Wild’s offense has been led by sophomore sensation Kirill Kaprisov. He’s following up his Calder Trophy winning season by leading the league in 5v5 P/60. Ryan Hartman is having a strong year offensively as well, and he leads the Wild with 14 5v5 goals this season. The defense has been in on the act as well, with four regular defensemen exceeding their projected 5v5 point rates by wide margins. With offseason additions Alex Goligoski, Dmitri Kulikov and Jon Merrill in that group, the overhaul to the defense corps that included buying out Ryan Suter appears to be working out quite well.
Honorable Mention: Florida Panthers / Colorado Avalanche
The Panthers and Avalanche get honorable mentions for exceeding the projections, however get there in different ways. The Panthers have the highest 5v5 GF/60 in the NHL and also the largest positive difference from their projection. Their top six forward group has been an absolute force this season and all six are handily outperforming their individual 5v5 P/60 projections. While the Av’s superstars have been good, it’s the supporting cast that’s driving their success relative to the model with Nazem Kadri leading the way.
Biggest Train Wreck
Leading: Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks made a clear attempt to load up for a playoff appearance in the 2021 offseason. At the midpoint of the season, it’s clear things haven’t panned out as the Hawks had envisioned. Projected to be a middling team offensively at 5v5, the Blackhawks have the lowest 5v5 GF/60 in the league.
Nothing has gone right offensively for the Blackhawks this season. Brandon Hagel is the only forward exceeding his projected 5v5 P/60 and he leads the team in that category. Mackenzie Entwistle sits second. Riley Stillman and Seth Jones have been the only positives among the defense. Meanwhile, projected leaders Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat are struggling mightily. The Hawks need their stars to find a groove, but it may be too late already.
Honorable Mention: Montreal Canadiens / Vancouver Canucks
The Canadiens and Canucks share the honorable mention with their star forwards struggling. Their struggles extend beyond a single player, but there are big names that epitomize each team’s struggles. In Montreal, Brendan Gallagher was the projected NHL leader in 5v5 G/60 yet he is still searching for his first 5v5 goal of the season. In Vancouver, Elias Pettersson is struggling mightily sitting in the bottom quartile of the league in 5v5 P/60.
As Advertised
Leading: Ottawa Senators
The Senators have been the team coming the closest to as advertised in the 5v5 GF/60 category. Projected to be a below average team offensively, they’ve done just that and have the smallest variance between the projection and their actual results. They’ve arrived there with a mix of players overperforming and underperforming projections, with Tyler Ennis and Tim Stutzle sitting the closest to their projected production.
Honorable Mention: Nashville Predators / Boston Bruins
The Predators and Bruins are the next closest teams to their projected 5v5 GF/60. Both were projected to be slightly above average. The Bruins sit slightly above the projection, while the Predators are slightly below. It’s been a team-side effort for both with most skaters sitting very close to their projected production.
