Shayne Gostisbehere had fallen out of favor in Philadelphia and the Flyers went looking for a trade partner in the 2021 offseason. They found one in the Arizona Coyotes, who were busy snapping up all the perceived low value contracts they could to pile up draft picks alongside them. Let’s take a look at how the Gostisbehere trade looks now.
The Trade
Date: July 22, 2021
To Arizona Coyotes:
- Shayne Gostisbehere (2 years remaining @ $4.5M cap hit, age 28, UFA on expiry)
- 2022 2nd Round Pick (PHI)
- 2022 7th Round Pick (STL)
To Philadelphia Flyers:
- Future Considerations
Initial Value Assessment
While Gostisbehere had fallen from favor in Philly, there were still signs that he was a capable NHL defenseman. His projected Impact in the model was good enough to be considered a lower end 2nd pair defenseman, with a value of $3.227M. His cap hit of $4.5M did result in some spending inefficiency, lowering his overall value to about $2M but not wiping his value out entirely. In full re-build mode, the Coyotes were not concerned with the cap inefficiency and were able to get a couple of draft picks thrown in to take on Gostisbehere’s remaining two years. All in, Arizona got a capable NHL defenseman and two draft picks for nothing.
| To ARI | To PHI | |
| Shane Gostisbehere – Player Impact (0.66 5v5 Net G/60 AR) | $3,227,000 | – |
| Shane Gostisbehere – Contract Expiry Status (UFA) | $0 | – |
| Shane Gostisbehere – Opportunity Cost | -$1,273,000 | – |
| 2022 2nd Round Pick (PHI) | $914,275 | – |
| 2022 7th Round Pick (STL) | $210,410 | – |
| Future Considerations | – | $0 |
| Total Value | $3,078,685 | $0 |
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
Performance Updates
Arizona had the upper hand based on the initial assessment of the trade but projections are only theoretical. Let’s take a look at how each player and pick has performed since the trade to see of there is reason to change the verdict on the trade.
Arizona Coyotes – Shayne Gostisbehere
Gostisbehere has enjoyed an offensive resurgence in the desert this season. He’s shooting over 13% at 5v5, which is incredibly high for a defenseman and likely to regress. Yet his other offensive numbers are all exceeding the projections as well. Defense has been another story, with 5v5 xGA/60 in the top quartile and well above projected. Arizona has a warm body to fill a lineup slot while they find their rock bottom and they are likely quite pleased with what Gostisbehere has brought to the team this season.
Arizona Coyotes – 2022 2nd Round Pick (PHI)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
Arizona Coyotes – 2022 7th Round Pick (CBJ)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
Philadelphia Flyers – Future Considerations
An asset with no value.
The Verdict
The Coyotes appear to have won this trade handily based on what we know today. They added a couple of draft picks for their rebuild along with a capable NHL defenseman to hold down a spot in their current lineup. Philadelphia gained some cap space but had to set aside most of it to acquire a replacement defenseman with similar impact.
There’s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve, so we’ll keep our eye on it for future update. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
