The New York Rangers have stumbled of late as their mediocre 5v5 results have started to catch up to them, but still look like a contender in the Metropolitan. The Jets sit 6th in the Central and look like they need to re-tool the roster to get back to contender status. These two teams could be excellent trade partners, so let’s take a look at a hypothetical trade proposal.
Team Needs
The Rangers 5v5 results have been questionable this season, with their success driven by special teams and goaltending. They rank near the bottom of the league in both xGF/60 and GF/60 at 5v5. Defensive issues have been masked by strong goaltending, as they sit around the 75th percentile in 5v5 xGA/60. They need to improve their all-around 5v5 game if they hope to make noise in the playoffs. Upgrades to the top six would be helpful, both at right wing and center, allowing others to slide down the lineup and improve overall forward depth. The Rangers have roughly $23M in projected deadline cap space according to CapFriendly, so should have the resources to acquire both if they choose to. With a tight cap situation next season, pure rentals are preferred.
The Jets have struggled to string together wins this season and sit 6th in the Central. With an aging core, it’s becoming clear that the team needs to re-tool. The window for that is now, before they fall too far and are forced into a re-build. Moving pending UFAs and poor value contracts for younger players and/or prospects and picks is the way to turn things around.
For more on each teams needs and overall strategy, check out the Armchair GM Roadmaps on the respective team pages.
The Proposal
Date: Jan 14, 2021
To New York Rangers:
- Paul Stastny (Final year @ $3.75M cap hit, UFA on expiry, age 36)
To Winnipeg Jets:
- Brayden Schneider (age 20, ELC)
- 2022 4th Round Pick
| To NYR | To WPG | |
| Paul Stastny – Player Impact | $3,156,000 | – |
| Paul Stastny – Contract Expiry (UFA) | $0 | – |
| Paul Stastny – Opportunity Cost | -$594,000 | – |
| Brayden Schneider – Defenseman Prospect Value | – | $1,907,600 |
| 2022 4th Round Pick | – | $526,815 |
| Total Value | $2,562,000 | $2,434,415 |
For more on how the trade values are determined, check out the series on assessing player and prospect value. You can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
Performance and Impact
Paul Stastny
Stastny’s projected impact this season is a borderline 2nd/3rd line forward and he has outperformed that projection so far. His goal scoring rate is not sustainable in the long term as he’s shooting over 20% at 5v5 this season, so it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll perform closer to projected rates in the future. His 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 is above the 75th percentile, however it’s likely there are team effects involved considering the entirety of Winnipeg’s top 6 has poor defensive numbers. Stastny’s 5v5 xGA/60 is roughly middle of the pack among Jets forwards and one of best in their top six.
The Jets need to infuse some youth into their system and trading Stastny as a pending UFA is one way to accomplish that. In the short term, it also opens a spot in the Jets’ middle six to audition Cole Perfetti as a full time NHLer for the rest of the season and still having an outside shot at the postseason. Stastny can play center or wing and would be a good fit in the Rangers middle six while still leaving cap space to pursue other additions. Having Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome, and Paul Stastny as their top three centers, the Rangers would have good depth down the middle heading into the playoffs.
Brayden Schneider
Schneider is in his first full professional season and has 9 points in 24 games with the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL. Hockey Prospecting has him rated with a 21% star probability and a 55% NHLer probability. With the Rangers looking to contend this season, they can afford to move a prospect. Meanwhile, the Jets would add a young defensive prospect to their system that may be able to step into an NHL role over the next couple of seasons as they re-tool their defense corps.
Do We Have A Deal?
If you were sitting in the GM’s chair for one of these teams, would you pull the trigger on this trade?
