With the Carolina Hurricanes reportedly balking at the asking price from RFA Alex Nedeljkovic and looking for more experience in goal, the Detroit Red Wings acquired the Calder nominated goaltender last offseason. The deal came ahead of free agency opening with both players involved pending free agents. Let’s take a look at the early returns on the deal.
The Trade
Date: July 22, 2021
To Detroit Red Wings:
- Alex Nedeljkovic (pending RFA, age 25)
To Carolina Hurricanes:
- Jonathan Bernier (pending UFA, age 32)
- 2021 3rd Round Pick (VGK)
Initial Value Assessment
Using the valuation techniques discussed in the series on assessing asset values, the Hurricanes got a slightly better value in this trade. However, with Nedeljkovic a pending RFA and Bernier a pending UFA, there was more risk for the Hurricanes that Bernier could sign elsewhere. With Detroit in a rebuild, Bernier likely didn’t fit in the Red Wings long term plans and it was an opportunistic move to get some assets for him rather than let him walk for nothing in free agency.
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
| To DET | To CAR | |
| Alex Nedeljkovic – Player Impact | $3,793,000 | – |
| Alex Nedeljkovic – Contract Expiry Status | -$18,956 | – |
| Alex Nedeljkovic – Opportunity Cost | $0 | – |
| Jonathan Bernier – Player Impact | – | $3,751,000 |
| Jonathan Bernier – Contract Expiry Status | – | $0 |
| Jonathan Bernier – Opportunity Cost | – | $0 |
| 2021 3rd Round Pick | – | $669,160 |
| Total Value | $3,774,044 | $4,420,160 |
2021-2022 Performance
Detroit Red Wings – Alex Nedeljkovic
The Red Wings signed Nedeljkovic to a 2 year deal with a $3M cap hit following the trade, locking him up for slightly under his overall value and close to current market value for free agent goalies. Nedeljkovic has cemented his status as Detroit’s number one goaltender, with 22 games played so far this season. He’s been better than projected, sitting comfortably above the league median for 5v5 GSAx/60. With the Red Wings rebuild showing signs that they are ready to turn the corner, Detroit seems to have found their starter for the next few seasons.
Carolina Hurricanes – Jonathan Bernier
The Hurricanes were unable to sign Bernier following the trade and he ended up signing in New Jersey. The Devils agreed to a 2 year deal with a $4.124M cap hit with Bernier, about $1M above his overall value and the current market value. While it may seem that watching Bernier sign elsewhere wiped out 85% of the value that the Hurricanes received in the trade, that’s not really the case. If we consider that cap space has value as well, the Canes gained cap space equivalent to Bernier’s market value (~$3M) so they still came out of the trade with a similar overall value.
Carolina Hurricanes – 2021 3rd Round Pick (VGK)
The Hurricanes used the 3rd round pick they received in the deal to select defenseman Aidan Hreschuk. Playing with Boston College this season, Hreschuk has 5 points in 18 games. Hockey Prospecting has him ranked with a 1% star probability and 27% NHLer probability, which gives him a prospect value of $856,400 which is small increase from the value of a typical 3rd round pick.
The Verdict
This was a fairly even trade at the time of the deal. The Hurricanes could likely have have signed Nedeljkovic to a reasonable contract but went a different direction as they look to contend. They got fair value back from the Red Wings, who were able to lock up Nedelkovic as the starting goaltender for their re-build. While Carolina didn’t end up signing Bernier, they still gained value in available cap space and acquired a draft pick in the process.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
