The Los Angeles Kings took advantage of the pre-expansion landscape last offseason to snap up Victor Arvidsson from Nashville as the Predators worked out their protection list for the expansion draft. Let’s take a look at the returns on the trade so far.
The Trade
Date: July 1, 2021
To Los Angeles Kings:
- Victor Arvidsson (3 years remaining @ $4.25M cap hit, UFA on expiry, age 28)
To Nashville Predators:
- 2021 2nd Round Pick (LAK)
- 2022 3rd Round Pick (LAK)
Projections
Viktor Arvidsson spent 7 seasons in Nashville, where he became a staple in the Predators top six. Now 28, he has a projected impact of a high end second line forward this season. His long term projection is stable for the next few seasons as he is in the tail end of his prime so it’s reasonable to expect a consistent impact through the end of his contract. His cap hit is quite reasonable as well, providing value roughly equal to his cap hit.
Initial Value Assessment
Using the valuation techniques discussed in the series on assessing asset values, the Kings found a great deal here. With the Predators looking to sort out their protection list for the expansion draft, LA was able to take advantage to get double the value in return for their two draft picks.
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
| To LAK | To NSH | |
| Viktor Arvidsson – Player Impact | $4,010,000 | – |
| Viktor Arvidsson – Contract Expiry (UFA) | $0 | – |
| Viktor Arvidsson – Opportunity Cost | -$822,000 | – |
| 2021 2nd Round Pick | – | $914,275 |
| 2022 3rd Round Pick | – | $669,160 |
| Total Value | $3,188,000 | $1,583,435 |
2021-2022 Performance
Los Angeles Kings – Viktor Arvidsson
Arvidsson has come as advertised to start his Kings’ career, with both 5v5 xGA/60 and 5v5 GF/60 right in line with projections. Offense has come in a bit different form than projected, with Arvidsson picking up more assists and fewer goals at 5v5 than projected. He’s shooting just 4.29% at 5v5 this season, which is the lowest of his career, so there’s a reasonable chance we’ll see his goal scoring pick up over the rest of the season.
Nashville Predators – 2021 2nd Round Pick (LAK)
The Predators packaged the 2021 2nd round pick they received from the Kings with another 2021 second round pick to trade up at the entry draft. They sent their two 2nd round picks to the Hurricanes (Total Value: $1,828,550) to acquire the Hurricanes 1st round pick, #27 overall (Total Value: $1,453,410). They then used the 27th overall pick to select winger Zachary L’Heureux.
L’Heureax is playing for the Halifax Mooseheads in the QMJHL this season and Hockey Prospecting has him ranked with a 23% star probability and 64% NHLer probability (Total Value: $2,346,800).
Nashville Predators – 2022 3rd Round Pick (LAK)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
The Verdict
At the time of the trade, it looked as though the Kings got a screaming good deal. With Arvidsson’s results this season very close to projections, the Kings got exactly what we expected and almost doubled value on the $1.6M worth of draft picks they gave up. After losing $1.6M in value in the initial deal, the Predators dealt one of the acquired draft picks in a separate deal that lost further value before making what looks like a good selection with the 27th overall pick in the 2021 draft to recover some value. As things stand now, the Kings won this trade by a wide margin.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
