As the Seattle Kraken kicked off their inaugural season, they looked like a defensively minded team with good depth. Many analytics models had them projected as one of the stronger teams in the Pacific Division. Let’s take a look at their early season results and see how they compare with full season projections.
Grades
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Record
The Kraken stumbled out of the gate with a 1-5-0 record, but seem to have found their footing with a 3-2-0 record since. A 0.409 point percentage is not what they had hoped for 11 games into the season and is well below their projected strength, yet it’s early enough in the season that it leaves them within striking distance in the Pacific Division. Their full season projection now sits fourth in the division and is in range to challenge for a wild card spot.
Even Strength Offense
The Kraken’s 5v5 offense sits 11th in the NHL for goals for rate, just slightly above their projected rate. They’ve done it with an expected goals for rate that is 20th in the league so they be benefitting from some finishing luck early in the season.
Individually, the Kraken skaters are generally all chipping in offensively. We see offensive output from both forwards and defensemen throughout the lineup, with Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz and Ryan Donato leading the way among forwards and Vince Dunn leading the defensemen. While those four skaters may see some regression in their point rates over the long term, there are others who are underperforming projections so far that are likely to see point rates pick up.
Even Strength Defense
As we turn to the 5v5 defensive numbers, we start to see why the Kraken have struggled early in the season. They were expected to be a strong defensive team and they sit 8th in the NHL for 5v5 expected goals against rate, which is also even better than their projection. The problems appear in the goaltending numbers. Allowing over a goal per 60 more than expected is not a recipe for success. The Kraken’s poor goaltending thus far leads to a 5v5 goals against rate that is 31st in the league despite their relatively strong team defense.
Defensively, we see some expected names leading the Kraken in 5v5 on-ice xGA/60, in Yanni Gourde and Branden Tanev. The Kraken’s top offensive forwards have some of the highest on-ice xGA/60, however their numbers are generally still good. Among defensemen, captain Mark Giordano and youngster Haydn Fleury lead the way while the Kraken would like to Adam Larsson’s defensive impact improve.
The Kraken took some chances with goaltending in the expansion draft, picking players with strong outlooks but limited NHL experience, before landing Philip Grubauer in free agency. Grubauer has struggled through the early season. With Chris Driegder on the shelf with an injury, Joey Daccord has had backup duty and has not fared any better. With Driedger nearing a return, he may get an opportunity to nab the starter’s job.
Powerplay
Special teams have not helped Seattle’s early season plight. Their 5v4 powerplay is ranked 24th for xGF/60 and 31st for GF/60. They need to find some improvement here.
Penalty Kill
The Kraken’s penalty kill is the mirror image of their 5v5 defense. While allowing xGA/60 at a rate that is 31st in the league at 4v5, their GA/60 sits 8th in the league. If they can cut down the chances against, this is an area that could be a strength.
Lineup Notes
Yanni Gourde returned to the lineup early than anticipated after offseason surgery. His defensive impact may be one of the catalysts in turning the Kraken’s game around after their 1-5 start. The Kraken have also suffered through some Covid protocol abscenses in the early season and have Mason Appleton and Marcus Johansson on the IR. Appleton is not expected to out long term, however Johansson is considered out indefinitely. Appleton’s projected impact is a third line forward while Johansson’s is a fourth line forward.
Up Next
- @ ARI
- @ VGK
- vs ANA
- vs MIN
- vs CHI
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Kraken and the rest of the Pacific Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Kraken and around the league throughout the season.
