2021 Offseason Update: July 22-26

In this update, we’re covering the period over the NHL Entry Draft, leading up to free agency. There were some impactful roster moves so let’s dig right into some of the notable ones.

Biggest Loss: Montreal Canadiens – Shea Weber

The Habs announced that Shea Weber would miss at least the 21/22 season due to a number of lingering injuries and that he may even be forced to retire. Montreal loses their captain, leaving a big hole in their defense corps.

Riskiest UFA Signing: Edmonton Oilers – Mike Smith

The Edmonton Oilers brought back Mike Smith on a 2 year contract with a cap hit of $2.2M. Smith stood on his head last season and was a big part of the Oilers’ regular season success so it’s easy to see why he at least warranted some consideration for a return. From my 2021-2022 projections, Smith projects at a capable starting goaltender. However, with this contract carrying through his age 39 and 40 seasons, there is certainly risk involved as age may take it’s toll on his performance before the contract is up.

Highest Impact RFA Re-Signing: Colorado Avalanche – Cale Makar

Cale Makar is clearly one of the NHL’s elite defensemen and, at only age 22, is reasonable to expect he will continue to improve for the next few seasons. The Av’s were able to lock him up long-term, with a 6 year deal and a cap hit of $9M. The value per $1M is right around the league median, so the Avs and Makar were able to find an equitable number to keep the star defender in Denver.

Best Value RFA Re-Signing: Los Angeles Kings – Trevor Moore

The LA Kings re-signed Trevor Moore to a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $1.875M. Moore projects as a capable 3rd line forward for the 21/22 season and the contract looks like it will provide excellent value, with his impact per $1M above the 75th percentile.

Best Short Term Gain for Long Term Pain Trade: Vancouver Canucks – Conor Garland / Oliver Ekman-Larsson

The Vancouver Canucks acquired two Coyotes rumored to be on the block in Arizona for the past year and gave their roster a solid injection of talent for the 21/22 season. Conor Garland’s projected impact is that of a very capable top line forward and gives the Canucks a very good top line and the Canucks have some influence on his cost as a pending RFA. Ekman-Larsson projects as a borderline 2nd/3rd pair defenseman, which is where things get hairier. With a cap hit of $8.25M for the next six years, this is likely a contract that is going to cause consternation in Vancouver for years. While the Canucks were able to offload roughly $12M in poor value contracts the other way, they are all set to expire after next season.

In the end, the trade gives the Canucks a big boost to their 21/22 point percentage projection, at the cost of long term cap efficiency.

Best Impact Trade: Florida Panthers – Sam Reinhart

The Panthers acquired Sam Reinhart from the Sabres in exchange for goalie prospect Devon Levi and some draft picks. Reinhart adds to the Panthers top six forward group and could be a key piece for a team on the rise. Reinhart projects as a capable second line forward.

Honorable Mention: Detroit Red Wings – Alex Nedjelovic

The Canes sent breakout goaltender Nedjelovic to the Detroit Red Wings, with pending UFA netminder Jonathan Bernier coming the other way. With the Hurricanes roster now void of NHL caliber goaltenders, it’s not clear what Carolina’s plan is. Detroit ends up with a 25 year old goaltender that could be a staple in net for years to come.

Most Mind-Boggling Trade Combination: Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers made two trades involving defensemen, that combine to make the most mind-boggling move of the offseason so far. First, the Flyers sent Shane Gostisbehere to the Arizona Coyotes, along with some draft picks as sweeteners for Arizona picking up his $4.5M cap hit. Gostisbehere projects as a capable 2nd pairing defenseman, so this was already a bit of a head scratcher at this point. With an expected impact per $1M slightly below league median, it’s seems like the Coyotes made out very well in this exchange.

Yet the Flyers weren’t done. With Gostisbehere’s cap hit off the books, they turned to the Buffalo Sabres and acquired Rasmus Ristolainen while sending Robert Hagg and some draft picks the other way. Ristolainen comes with a $5.4M cap hit and only projects as a borderline 6th/7th defenseman while Hagg projects as a borderline 2nd/3rd pair defender. Considering this trade together with the previous one, the Flyers gave up 4 draft picks, a 2nd pair defenseman and a 3rd pair defenseman for a 7th defenseman with a $5.4M cap hit!

Free Agency

Looking ahead, qualifying offers were due to pending RFAs today and free agency opens in just 2 days. Subscribe to catch my next offseason update which will cover the initial period of free agency.