With the Central Division wrapping up regular season play on Monday night, I’m starting my season reviews with the Columbus Blue Jackets. If you haven’t already, I encourage you to read my post on the process I’ll be using for my season reviews that goes into more detail on what I am looking for on the plots.
With start players on each side looking for fresh starts, the Blue Jackets completed a blockbuster trade early in the season that sent Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic. While Roslovic performed well for his new club, Laine never really found his stride. Following their last place finish in the Central Division, head coach John Tortorella announced he would be leaving the club this off-season beginning an off-season of change for the club. After a tumultuous season, what do the Blue Jackets need to improve this off-season?
Team Overview
First, let’s take a look at the Jackets final point percentage and compare it to where our points predictor model places them based on their 5v5 goal rates.
Columbus finished the season 28th overall in point percentage, slightly outperforming the model. The small difference between the model and the Blue Jackets’ actual point percentage suggests they finished approximately where they should have based on their 5 on 5 play. They’ll need to improve to get back into the playoff picture.
Let’s take a look at the Jackets goals for and against rates at 5 on 5 that feed into the points predictor model. This can give us some insight into whether the Jackets off-season focus should be on offense, defense, or both.
It’s clear that the Jackets struggled on both sides of the puck and will need to improve both offensively and defensively to improve their lot in the standings.
Player Performance
Let’s dig into player performance and see if we can find any insight into how the Jackets can improve over the offseason. Do they have players that underperformed this season? Are there players they should look to move out? We’ll start with a player usage chart looking at all forwards and defensemen.
It’s clear from the usage chart that Zach Werenski was the Jacket’s best defenseman and Oliver Bjorkstrand was their best forward over the 2020-2021 season. We can see the solid impact that Jack Roslovic had after he arrived via the trade with the Jets, as well as the underwhelming production from Patrik Laine. The consistency of deep red markers showing high SA/60 also raises the question on whether there may have been a systemic issue with team defense, such as tactics. The wide spread away from the upper right – lower left diagonal suggests player usage may not have been optimal, with players far the upper left such as Laine and Seth Jones being over-utilized.
The plot of GF/60 vs TOI/GP gives us a visual depiction of the proportional impact on team GF/60 from each player. We can see strong contributions from Bjorkstrand, Roslovic, and Mikhail Grigorenko up front and Werenski and Michael del Zotto on D. Once again, Seth Jones appears to be over-utilized based on his offensive contribution, with Werenski, Lehtonen and del Zotto all contributing significantly more offensively relative to their TOI.
The plot of SA/60 vs TOI/GP gives us a visual depiction of the proportional impact on team GA/60 from each skater. The group of forwards near the bottom-center of the chart stand out as having stronger defensive impact, while Dean Kukan stands out for the defensemen.
Now, let’s take a look at how the skaters’ GF/60 compares to our models, as well as looking for impacts from shooting percentage that may not be sustainable (and impact the model prediction). Which players are likely to repeat their 2020-2021 performance, improve, or regress?
Among forwards, Bjorkstrand, Roslovic, Domi and Jenner all underperformed the model suggesting that they were carrying their line mates offensively. Playing with stronger line mates may allow these players to increase their offensive impact. Columbus would do well to try to keep these players and maximize their impact. Bjorkstrand’s shooting percentage is high enough it may see some regression, but not likely enough to significantly affect the model output. On the flip side, Stenland and Foudy appear to have been supported offensively by their linemates. And Laine? He outperformed the model slightly, suggesting he was carried by his line mates, and his shooting percentage is not extreme. Most likely, the Jackets can expect a similar performance from this season next year. Given we know that he is a pure goal scorer, perhaps adding a playmaking center can help increase his offensive output.
On the back end, Werenski, Jones, and Gavrikov underperformed the model. Werenski had a very high shooting percentage for a defenseman, which inflates our model, so we can expect that he actually performed closer to the model. Seth Jones looks like he carried his team mates offensively, which helps explain the ice time he received that we couldn’t understand from his individual point production. Likewise, Gavrikov looks like a player that had a strong impact on his teammates and could be ready to take on a larger role next season. On the flip side, del Zotto overperformed the model, in spite of a high shooting percentage. The Jackets would be wise to temper expectations for next season.
Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins split the goaltending duties relatively evenly this season with significantly different results. While Merzlikins had a relatively strong season, Korpisalo was below average. Based on this year’s numbers, the Jackets would be wise to give Merzlikins a higher percentage of starts next season. They could also use a stronger performance from their backup goaltender.
Looking Ahead
The Blue Jackets have $55M of cap space tied up for the 2021-2022 season as they head into the offseason. Let’s take at some key players.
Key RFAs:
Patrick Laine is the most notable RFA. After struggling this season, it seems unlikely the Blue Jackets will be ready to commit to a long term deal. As we saw earlier, Laine doesn’t look like an obvious choice for a big bounce back next year and the Jackets should be careful about committing to a deal that may handcuff them with the salary cap down the road. Perhaps the best move they could make this offseason would be to acquire a playmaking center that can elevate Laine’s game.
Key UFAs:
Mikhail Grigorenko is the most notable UFA among forwards. We saw that Grigorenko had a strong positive impact offensively and the Jackets would do well to re-sign him provided the cost is reasonable.
Mikko Lehtonen looked underutilized on the player usage chart, with his numbers split between the Leafs and Jackets. He could be a good depth option on defense for the Jackets.
Michael del Zotto had a strong impact offensively this season but is likely to see some regression based on our model results. His suitors during free agency would be well advised to be cautious.
Key Players Under Contract
The Blue Jackets extended Oliver Bjorkstrand for a 5 x $5.4M cap hit. At age 26, he is poised to be one of the offensive leaders for the next few years.
Jack Roslovic has one year left on his current deal, with a $1.8M cap hit. He has fit in well in Columbus and could be a key piece next season.
Zack Werenski is only 23 and has one year left at a $5M cap hit before he becomes an RFA. He has developed into the Jackets top defenseman and they should start working on extending him.
Tough Questions
Is Cam Atkinson part of the Blue Jackets long term plans? Atkinson is 31 and still has 4 seasons remaining on his deal at a $5.875M cap hit. The Jackets window to win is clearly not now and they could likely do more with the cap space in the coming years. This may be the best time to move him to maximize a return before age starts to take it’s toll on his production.
Should the Blue Jackets explore moving Seth Jones over the offseason? We saw that his impact was less than some of the Jackets other defensemen, yet he had a positive offensive impact on his teammates. With one year left on his deal before he becomes a UFA, there may be other teams that would provide a strong return for him in a trade. Could Jones be a trade piece that can help with the offseason priority (see below).
Offseason Priority
The Blue Jackets need to find a playmaking center to compliment Patrik Laine and elevate his game. This will not only improve Laine’s contribution, but add another player with strong offensive impact to the lineup. Will they be able to acquire such a player through free agency? If not, what will it cost them to acquire one through trade?
Ensure you subscribe to see more season reviews as they come out.
data: Natural Stat Trick
cap data: CapFriendly
