With the NHL trade deadline now less than 3 weeks away, I’m going to take a look at the needs of the potential buyer teams and identify some of the likely candidates for rental players on the teams likely to be selling.
The North Division has produced some wildly entertaining hockey through the first half of the season and I’m going to start my trade deadline preview there. As the standing sit after games played March 21, the Leafs and Oilers are in a battle for the top seed in the North while just 5 points separate 3rd place from 6th. Only the rebuilding Senators look like sure sellers as the rest of the teams are still very much in the battle for playoff positions.
Let’s take a look at each team’s needs in order of the current standings. We’ll use player data from Natural Stat Trick and salary cap data from CapFriendly for our analysis. While they may be prone to some error with only about 30 games of data, player usage charts based only on this season’s data will give us insight into each team’s current strengths and weaknesses. I’m adjusting the TOI/GP and Points/60 for defensemen in order to compare their impact with that of the forwards and we’ll only look at players who have played over 100 minutes on the season.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Projected Cap Space: $262,100
The Leafs have fallen from their perch atop the North Division back into the pack over the past couple of weeks. While they are still look strong, they don’t look as dominant as they did earlier in the season. Their limited cap space will make it difficult to add more than a depth player.
What’s gone right: As expected, Austin Matthews and Mitch Marner are driving the Leafs offense. They’ve had plenty of support from the rest of the lineup and we can see the top 10 players by ice time all have expected goal for percentages over 50%, showing us that they are consistently carrying play. While defense has been an issue in recent years, we see Mike Reilly and TJ Brodie performing well in offensive roles while Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl are excelling with more defensive assignments.
Areas for improvement: While the top half of the forward lineup has carried play this season, the same cannot be said for the bottom half. With Jason Spezza and Wayne Simmonds as notable exceptions, the rest of the Leafs’ depth players all have expected goal for percentages under 50%. While Zach Hyman has strong numbers in a more defensive role, we don’t see a center that’s frequently used in defensive situations.
Trade targets: Checking line center, depth forward
Edmonton Oilers
Projected Cap Space: $0
The Oilers have climbed steadily in the standings since Mike Smith returned from injury and find themselves in a battle for top spot in the North. Up against the cap, their options at the deadline will be limited.
What’s gone right: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are a handful for opposing teams. Darnell Nurse is having a strong season on defense and Tyson Barrie is contributing to the Oiler’s offensive output as well.
Areas for improvement: Depth appears to be an issue. Beyond a few top players, most of the team is operating under 50% expected goals for and there is large drop off in point production after McDavid and Draisaitl. They also appear to lack both checking forwards and defensive defensemen as we see the top left quadrant of the chart is blank. While their offensive stars can likely carry them to the playoffs, they’ll need to shut down the opposition’s top players to have playoff success.
Trade targets: Checking center, top 4 shutdown defenseman
Winnipeg Jets
Projected Cap Space: $0
The Jets have been relatively consistent so far this season, anchored by Connor Hellebuyck in net. They currently sit at the top of a tight pack fighting for the last two playoff spots in the division. Limited cap space will limit their deadline options.
What’s gone right: Connor Hellebuyck is having another incredible season. His consistently outstanding play has masked some of the Jets’ defensive flaws. Derek Forbort and Neil Pionk are handling shutdown duties well on the backend.
Areas for improvement: The Jets’ have had difficultly controlling play, as seen by the number of players below 50% expected goals for percentage. Their top players are getting out-chanced and they don’t appear to have an established checking line that has been able to successfully limit the opposing top lines. Already having made a big trade to bring in Pierre Luc Dubois, we are yet to see his full impact due to quarantine and injury.
Trade targets: Checking forward
Montreal Canadiens
Projected Cap Space: $825,760
After their hot start, the Canadiens have fallen into the pack fighting for playoff spots.
What’s gone right: The Canadiens depth was touted by many as one of the best in the NHL at the start of the season. We see in the chart that it’s panned out as such. Ice-time has been distributed very evenly at 5 on 5 and the team is carrying play throughout the lineup.
Areas for improvement: With Ben Chairot out for next while, the Canadiens may look to add depth on the back-end.
Trade targets: Top 4 defenseman, depth defenseman
Vancouver Canucks
Projected Cap Space: $0
The Canucks were hoping for big things following their strong playoff showing last summer but were slow out of the gate. Strong play of late has helped them climb back into the playoff picture. Injuries to some of their top players may make it a tough hill to climb into the playoffs picture. If they decide they have a chance and look to add at the deadline, their options are limited since they are already up against the cap.
What’s gone right: Elias Petterson was having another strong season prior to his injury in early March. Thatcher Demko has been outstanding, helping the Canucks fight their way back into the playoff race.
Areas for improvement: The Canucks have a majority of players operating at xGF% less than 50%. As long as that continues they will continue to rely on strong play from Demko to keep them in games. Secondary scoring could stand to be upgraded.
Trade targets: Top 6 forward, top 4 Defenseman
Potential Rental Players: If the Canucks decide to sell, they have a number of upcoming UFAs that may be of interest to teams in the hunt. Alex Edler comes with a $6,000,000 cap hit which limits trade options, but he can chew up tough defensive minutes. Jordie Benn is having a strong season and may be of interest to teams looking to add depth on the backend. His cap hit is $2,000,000.
Calgary Flames
Projected Cap Space: $929,670
The Flames inconsistency through the first half of the season has them on the outside of the playoff picture, yet they are just 5 points back from the 3rd place Jets. With the recent addition of Darryl Sutter behind the bench, it looks like the Flames are unlikely to give up on the season and become sellers. While they have more cap space than the teams above them, it’s still not a lot to work with.
What’s gone right: Chris Tanev has been a great addition to the defense corps and his partnership with Noah Hanafin has become the top pairing due to their strong play. The Flames also have a handful of forwards performing well in defensive situations.
Areas for improvement: Scoring has been at premium for the Flames this year. While Mark Giordano and Rasmus Anderson have contributed offensively, their expected goal percentages are well below 50%.
Trade targets: Top line forward, top 4 defenseman, depth defenseman
Ottawa Senators
Projected Cap Space: $9,269,523
The Senators entered the season in the midst of a rebuild. After a terrible start to the season, they’ve become a tougher out more recently but will likely be sellers at the deadline. They also have the cap space to allow them to retain some salary to help make a trade.
What’s gone right: The Senators are getting some solid individual seasons from their young players. Thomas Chabot has been a rock on the backend. Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson are all having strong campaigns up front.
Potential Rental Players: The Sens have a number of upcoming UFAs that may be useful rental players, including Artem Anisimov and Ryan Dzingel up front and Mike Reilly and Erik Gudbranson on defense. Mike Reilly may be the most enticing as he is having a strong season and comes with a cap hit of only $1,500,000.
More Trade Deadline Previews:
2020-2021 Trade Deadline Preview: Central Division
