The Vancouver Canucks fired GM Jim Benning, AGM John Weisbrod, and Head Coach Travis Green on Sunday after a dismal start to the season. Today, we’ll put ourselves in the GM’s chair and develop an Armchair GM Plan for the Canucks.
Current Season Performance (as of Dec 6)
Record: 8-15-2 (18 Pts), 8th in the Pacific
Current Projected P%: 0.480 (79 Pts), 8th in the Pacific
Season Opening Projected P%: 0.513 (84 Pts), 5th in the Pacific
Team Performance:
The Canucks are underperforming relative to what was a very mediocre projection coming into the 21/22 season. Defensively, they’ve been average compared to the rest of the NHL and very close to their projection. Goaltending has been better than projected with Thatcher Demko standing on his head on a nightly basis. The Canucks simply can’t buy a goal at 5v5, however, and their offensive output is one of the worst in the league. It’s well below projected and the source of much of their early season troubles. Add in a below average powerplay and the worst penalty kill in the NHL and the Canucks have fallen to the Pacific Division cellar. For a team that had playoff aspirations, it’s been a dismal start to the 21/22 season.
For more plots on the current season performance, see the Vancouver Canucks team page.
Current Roster
Expectations may have been set too high for the 21/22 Canucks. For a team that clearly made moves toward contending last offseason, a look at their roster strength relative to other teams in the league doesn’t leave one with a lot of confidence for a serious playoff run. They rank at or below league average everywhere except for the bottom defensive pair. Team defense is projected as near the worst in the NHL, which appears to be due largely to the lack of depth up front and the subpar top four defense group. The team is loaded with poor value contracts that lead to a projected value for the full strength lineup that is well under the actual cap hit.
For more plots on the current roster, see the Vancouver Canucks team page.
Long Term Outlook
The Canucks current full strength roster is providing a 5v5 value of roughly 75% of their cap hit, which is a trend that continues over the long term for the remaining contracted players. Brock Boeser headlines the list of pending free agents next summer while much of the core is signed through at least the 22/23 season. Improving cap efficiency won’t be an easy task over the short term.
The Canucks need some high value ELC players to make an impact to help their cap situation. Unfortunately, their prospect system isn’t in great shape. Hockey Prospecting has the Canucks prospect strength ranked 23rd in the NHL with 1.23 expected stars and 5.86 expected NHLers in the system in the latest update. With Nils Hoglander still qualifying as a prospect based on number of NHL games played, he represents a large piece of that future star potential.
Objective
Status:
| Contending | Re-tooling | Re-building | Re-stocking |
Target Contention Window:
Starting 2024-2025
Comments:
With the prospect cupboards bare and the current roster loaded with poor value contracts, the Canucks need a major overhaul. There are some strong pieces in place to build around, however, and if managed well it may be a relatively quick rebuild. Playoff odds for this season are long at this point and the current focus should be on offloading poor value contracts and restocking the cupboards with prospects and draft picks.
Target 2024/25 Lineup
The Canucks have some exciting young players on the roster to build around. Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser are off to horrid starts this season, but their struggles were unexpected. It’s likely they’ll bounce back and and they will be age 26 and 27 at the start of the target window. While Quinn Hughes has a low value contract this season, the expectation is that the 22 year old will grow into it and be the backbone of the defense corps. Jack Rathbone has potential to fill a top four role and Thatcher Demko has the ability to steal games on a regular basis.
Top Priorities
- Help Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser re-discover their offensive games. Both players have defensive impacts that are better than projected this season but their offensive impact has completely vanished. If the Canucks are going to build a contender around these two forwards, they need to start producing offensively. Perhaps bringing in Bruce Boudreau as head coach will provide the required spark. If not, the Canucks need to continue exploring other avenues. Perhaps bringing in a complementary player. Perhaps Pettersson’s wrist injury is still an issue and needs further treatment.
- Sign Brock Boeser to a deal with better value. An upcoming 24 year old RFA, this won’t be easy. The Canucks have too many poor value contracts and they cannot afford to overpay if they hope to achieve a quick rebuild. Boeser could be a core piece for the Canucks at the start of the target window, with projected impact of a high end 2nd line forward. Yet if they can’t sign him for a reasonable cap hit relative to his impact, they need to consider moving on.
- Trade Bo Horvat. The captain is performing near projections so far this season. The trouble is that his projected impact is only that of a third line forward. With a cap hit of $5.5M, the Canucks aren’t getting enough for their money and this is one of the poor value contracts that they should be looking to shed. Horvat is also 26 and will be near the end of his prime by the start of the target window.
- Overhaul the defense corps. The current roster ranks near the bottom of the league in projected 5v5 defense and top 4 average impact. Quinn Hughes is the only current member of the top four that has projected top four impact during the target window. The Canucks need him to continue to take big strides in his development while they overhaul the rest of the top four. Jack Rathbone appears to have top 4 potential but the Canucks will have to look outside the organization for at least a couple of additions.
- Acquire additional high end prospects and 1st/2nd round draft picks. The Canucks will need some capable young players on efficient contracts to fill holes in the lineup by the time the target window opens. They need to improve their odds that they have some quality NHL players in the system to do this. With the playoffs a long shot this season, offloading expiring contracts ahead of the trade deadline is the first big opportunity to bring in some future assets.
That wraps up my take on the current state of the Canucks and a possible vision for the team. What would you do if you were in the GM’s chair?
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Input data for models and actual current season data: NaturalStatTrick
Cap data: CapFriendly
Prospect rankings: Hockey Prospecting
