Subject: Boston Bruins
Date: 2024-Nov-20
Previous Entry: Bruins Roster Ruminations – March 2024
Trouble Bruin In Boston
The Boston Bruins fired Head Coach Jim Montgomery yesterday, after a mediocre first quarter of the season. Through 20 games, they sit with an 8-9-3 record which puts them 4th in the Atlantic and in the second wild card spot. It’s a quick fall from grace for a team that ran away with the President’s Trophy just two years ago.
Montgomery may have taken the fall, but the Bruins issues run much deeper. I postulated in my Bruins roster ruminations post last March that the Bruins could be in long term trouble:
Rather than regenerate the roster this summer, however, Don Sweeney and Co. chose to double down on their veteran laden roster. They tied up cap space on UFAs like Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov and now have a roster that is capped out with significant long term commitments to players on the downhill slope of their careers.
Is a new head coach the answer? Probably not for the long term. It might be enough to kick the current squad up a gear though. The model sees the Bruins as around a 75th percentile team, driven largely by shooting and goaltending. Their possession metrics are markedly pedestrian in the model projection and they’ve been putting up numbers that mirror the model prediction relatively closely thus far. The one area that their actual results differ the most from the model? Their point percentage. That should correct with a larger sample but perhaps a new coach bump can entice it sooner rather than later.
While the Bruins currently occupy a playoff spot, their position as one of the four incumbent playoff teams in the Atlantic is at risk. They’re on the bubble now, with the Sabres and Senators looking like they may actually be knocking on the door this season.
There were rumors on the weekend that the Bruins may be looking to add to the current group. If that’s true, potential trade partners might be wise to target Boston’s 2026 1st round pick. Presumably, they would top 10 protect it, but it could then be made to slide to an unprotected 2027 first. It’s a gamble that the Bruins might tumble down the standings quickly, but that’s often the way longtime contenders fail when they finally do. There are signs of trouble in their roster construction and if the Bruins might be starting that eventually in the face if they continue on their current path.
