Subject: New Jersey Devils
Date: 2024-Nov-19
Previous Devils Entry: Roster Ruminations – August 2024
General Observations
- The New Jersey Devils got a jump on the 24/25 season by accumulating a 4 point lead on the rest of the league before opening night, thanks to a pair of Global Series wins over the Buffalo Sabres.
- The NHL’s schedule makers kept them busy after the early start, as they were the first team to cross the quarter mark of the season.
- After 21 games, the Devils sit with a 12-7-2 record.
- Their 0.619 P% sees them outperforming the current model projection, where the Devils are viewed as an average team.
- The model predicts the Devils 5v5 possession metrics to be strong, but they have yet to find that form on a consistent basis.
- A recent stretch of strong 5v5 goaltending has helped the Devils bank 14 points in their last 10 games, with a 7-3-0 record over that stretch.
Goaltending Upgrade?
The Devils big splash this summer was acquiring Jacob Markstrom from the Calgary Flames in an effort to shore up their goaltending. Along with Jake Allen, last season’s deadline acquisition, the Devils clearly hoped to have solved the goaltending woes that have plagued their emergence from their rebuild in recent seasons. As noted in August’s roster ruminations post, however, it wasn’t clear that Markstrom was the answer. While he has the name recognition, the model wasn’t convinced that last year’s high danger heroics were sustainable.
So far this season, the Devils have a 0.914 save percentage at 5v5. That’s good for 14th in the league. Perhaps not the brick wall that the Devils front office may have hoped for, but perfectly average. Last year’s Devils ranked 28th in 5v5 SV%. They would have been ecstatic with average goaltending.
Unfortunately, Markstrom hasn’t been the saviour in the blue paint thus far. In fact, it’s Jake Allen pulling up the team SV%. Markstrom has been a shadow of what he was last season, when he made the highlight reel regularly with one of the best 5v5 HDSV% in the NHL (0.868).
| Player | GP | 5v5 SV% | 5v5 HDSV% |
| Jacob Markstrom | 14 | 0.909 | 0.761 |
| Jake Allen | 7 | 0.925 | 0.875 |
The Devils gave up a 2025 1st round pick and Kevin Bahl to acquire Markstrom. They need him to find his 23/24 form.
Reconfigured Blueline
Outside the crease, the Devils focused on their blueline this past summer. As we noted in the August roster ruminations post, they appeared to be making way for their young defensemen to take on larger roles. With a healthy Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce signed as a free agent, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec could ride shotgun with some reliable veterans as they continued to establish themselves at the NHL level.
Things don’t appear to have gone quite according to plan through the first quarter of the season. The vets haven’t been the stabilizing force that the Devils presumably envisioned. One of the NHL’s best 5v5 producers among defensemen prior to last season’s injury, Hamilton has yet to find the back of the net at 5v5 this season. The Devils have also struggled with giving up high danger attempts while he’s been on the ice. Pesce has been a stabilizing presence from a possession standpoint, but he has zero 5v5 points on the season. Sample sizes are crossing the 200 min threshold used in the models at this stage of the season, so new trends lasting this long are concerning.
As for the youngsters, Luke Hughes is putting together a good sophomore campaign. Like Pesce, his possession metrics are positive and the magnitude of his on-ice HDCA/60 is very encouraging. The points haven’t been coming though. Simon Nemec had a rough start to the season and was sent down to the AHL after just 9 games. He suffered a shoulder injury during an Olympic qualifier leading up to the season and we have to wonder if it affected the start to his NHL season.
While there are some concerning trends emerging early this season, it is still early. The Devils reconfigured blueline will be worth watching to see if the early season trends hold or turn.
Where’s Jack?
A shoulder injurie derailed what looked like an MVP caliber start to the season for Jack Hughes last year. He’s been slow (for his standards) out of the gate this season and it seems fair to question if he’s back to 100% after season ending shoulder surgery late last season.
The good news is that Hughes has been putting up strong possession metrics at 5v5 and they’re improving. In the Devils’ last 10 games, his net 5v5 Corsi and net 5v5 HD Corsi are both slightly exceeding the model projection. Points have been coming slower than the model predicts, so it won’t be a surprise if we see a surge in production in the near future.
Jack Hughes lower production could be cause for concern though. If we look at his career 5v5 production, we can see a sizable drop in the latest two seasons. D+5 was last season, when we know he played through a shoulder injury for much of the season. D+6 is this season, where he’s only just passed the 20 GP mark to earn a spot on the graph. These are also years 2 and 3 in an 8 year deal that will see him through his prime.
This is not an ‘all hope is lost’ situation though. Jack Eichel’s production followed a similar pattern when he dealt with his neck injury and it took a full season following his surgery to regain his previous form. There’s a real possibility that Hughes may simply need time and a full offseason of regular training to get back on track. Not what Devils fans want to hear this year, but reason to believe he’ll be a key contributor for a sizable contention window.
