The New Jersey Devils hit a speed bump last season. Goaltending has been a common talking point although there was likely more at play. When I looked at the Devils in May, I postulated that injuries to Dougie Hamilton and Jack Hughes also took their toll and that showing patience would be New Jersey’s best course of action this summer.
Devils Hit The Mark
While goaltending wasn’t the only problem for the Devils last season, it was certainly a leading one. The Devils bled high danger chances, perhaps in part due to Hamilton’s lengthy injury absence and their young defensemen were thrust into the spotlight earlier than they planned as a result.
Rumors swirled at the trade deadline that the Devils were trying to acquire Jacob Markstrom from the Flames. They didn’t succeed then, but New Jersey continued their pursuit after the season and landed their masked man in exchange for Kevin Bahl and a first round pick.
While the Devils were bleeding high danger chances last season, Markstrom was stopping them in bunches in Calgary. The model is less convinced after a few up and down stretches over the past few seasons, but it does agree that Markstrom’s strength is stopping high danger chances. If he can maintain the form he showed last season, there’s plenty of reason for optimism that he and the Devils will be a good fit.
Blue Line Reconfiguration
While the Devils big upgrade this summer came in the crease, they also reconfigured their defense corps with some notable moves. John Marino was shipped to Utah on draft weekend for a package of draft picks and the Devils let Brendan Smith walk in free agency. Those moves opened enough cap space for the Devils to bring in Brett Pesce and Brendan Dillon in free agency.
Pesce, in particular, is projected to have very strong possession metrics. Playing in the top four, Pesce should help stabilize the Devils’ back end and reduce the demand for their goaltender to make regular highlight reel saves. He may also be a good veteran partner/mentor for one of New Jersey’s young defensemen, who will be looking to take a step forward this season.
Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec arrived on New Jersey’s blue line with high expectations last season and they were thrust into significant roles following Dougie Hamilton’s injury. They didn’t disappoint. Both played significant minutes and were productive in their minutes. Nemec, in particular, put up very strong numbers in his first season and it will be interesting to see if he can continue on his current development trajectory this season. With Pesce in the fold and Dougie Hamilton healthy, the Devils will have more options on how to deploy their young Dmen this season which should help them push play up to their now established forward group.
Looking Ahead
The Devils addressed their areas of need this summer, along with some additional tinkering around the edges. It doesn’t add up to much in the model, with the Devils projected to be chasing in the playoff race. However, we can see that’s largely due to goaltending and I suspect the model is undervaluing Markstrom. He seems like a great fit with the Devil’s defensive profile it wouldn’t be shocking to see them outperform the model projection.
The Devils also made their adjustments this summer without hindering their long term outlook. Dawson Mercer remains an RFA and they have room to consider a long term deal if they choose. They also still have a collection of draft picks that combine for roughly baseline success probability. Of course, as they push toward contender status, those picks can be valuable trade chips as well.
The Devils 2023-2024 season appears to be a bump in the road. They’re set up for the long haul with a strong core and plenty of good young players providing growth from within.
