Draft picks are one of the assets every NHL team has at it’s disposal. Ultimately, there are two ways to turn each pick into another type of asset as teams. Either the pick is used to select a prospect, who is then added to the team’s reserve list and under team control, or the pick is traded, either for prospects, established players, cap space, or different draft picks. So, what is a 2nd round pick worth?
The Draft
Teams are continually improving their understanding of prospects and the value of draft picks. Yet making a draft pick is still an exercise in probability. Prospect models like those at Hockey Prospecting give us some high level insight into what we should expect from a 2nd round selection. Hockey Prospecting puts the odds of a 2nd round draft pick becoming a regular NHLer (200 career GP) at only 30% and the odds of a star (0.7 career ppg for F / 0.45 career ppg for D) at only 3.4%.
Yet there’s a wide array of possibilities within the 30% that do end up as NHLers. Are they 4th line plugs who just reach the 200 GP mark? Are they valuable top 6 forwards who don’t quite hit the point production level required for a star?
For some additional insight, let’s take a look at the 31 2nd round selections from the 2016 draft. These players are now 25, just entering their prime seasons, and are typically still under team control.
The chart here shows projected impact for the 23/24 season based on my model. It’s not a direct comparison to the 200 GP definition from Hockey Prospecting, but we see a similar level of success. From the 2016 draft, 35% of the 2nd round picks look like NHL players in the model as they reach their prime. Star success is also similarly rare. The top players from the 2016 2nd round are Alex DeBrincat, Dillon Dube, Jordan Kyrou, Sam Girard, Ryan Lindgren, and Carter Hart.
If a team elects to use their second round pick themselves, there is a small possibility they will find a gem and add a game-breaking talent. It’s much more likely that any resulting NHL player will top out with middle of the lineup impact though. Even more likely (~60-70%), the prospect will never have a substantial impact at the NHL level.
The Trade Market
But what if a team elects to trade their second round pick instead of using it themselves? The easiest trade for us to assess is a one-for-one trade where a 2nd round pick is swapped for a single NHL roster player. Since the beginning of the 2022 offseason, there have been six such trades.
Much like the draft, there are a range of possible outcomes here. It’s a narrower band, however, as 100% of the players acquired in these trades are legitimate NHLers. The general trend seems to be that a 2nd round pick will net a 3rd line forward in a trade, with some slight variation given contracts and team situations. The certainty comes at the cost of team control, as the acquired players have less (some much less) team control remaining before they hit UFA status.
Of course, a 2nd round pick can be incorporated into a larger trade package which makes for endless possibilities for returns. The two scenarios here should provide a reference point for the value the second round pick in the deal. It’s either an approximate 30% chance of an NHL player with 7+ years of team control, with a remote chance of a star, or a certain middle of the lineup NHLer with less remaining team control.
