While the Stanley Cup Final is still in progress, there are 30 teams on the sidelines starting to think about next season. The Columbus Blue Jackets shot the offseason out of the starting blocks this week by making a pair of trades to bolster their blueline. Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent transactions around the NHL.
Blue Jackets Load Up
After landing Johnny Gaudreau in free agency last summer, it appears that the Blue Jackets are intent on maximizing their opportunity with Gaudreau in the fold. They added Ivan Provorov in a 3-team trade and then added Damon Severson via a sign and trade deal with the Devils.
The additions bolster a blueline that was in desperate need of some help. Severson is projected with top pair impact in top quartile minutes next season and should help shoulder the load at the top of the rotation with Zach Werenski. Provorov comes with a third pair projected impact, although with big minutes as well. Columbus may need to lessen his load in order to help heighten his impact.
It’s a start, but the road ahead will be a difficult one. The bad news is that the roster needs a lot of improvement to be considered a contender and they don’t have a lot of cap space remaining to continue upgrading. The good news is that the Blue Jackets prospect pool is among the best in the league (ranked #1 by Hockey Prospecting) and they had also accumulated some extra draft capital.
Their moves this week started to convert some future wins into current wins. The time horizon for draft picks in 2023 and beyond is far beyond Johnny Gaudreau’s prime, so trading them for help now makes a lot of sense. They still have plenty of draft capital remaining in the next three seasons as well, with their draft success probability shifting back to baseline following the Provorov and Severson deals.
If the Jackets are serious about contending, they’ll need to continue to shop aggressively for more of this type of deal to bolster the current roster and also have their current prospect pool turn out some NHL contributors over the next couple of seasons. They may need to be a bit more selective as well since cap space will become an issue quickly if they’re not careful. Severson’s deal is quite cap efficient but Provorov’s is not.
Briere Make His First Move
New Philadelphia Flyers GM Danny Briere made his first big move, pulling the trigger on the trade that sent Ivan Provorov to Columbus. The new Flyers regime had indicated they would look to rebuild and Briere’s first trade certainly fits the bill.
The Flyers were the benefactor in the deal in terms of adding draft capital, shifting their draft success odds in a positive direction. Not only did they add draft picks for dealing Provorov, they also took on Cal Petersen and Sean Walker from the Kings in the 3-team deal to help the Kings find some cap space.
Walker is a capable third pair defender and should be expected to help round out the Flyers blueline with Provorov moving on. Petersen is the big cap dump, with 2 years at $5.0M remaining on his deal after finding himself in the AHL midway through the 22/23 season. With Felix Sandstrom looking good in his limited starts last season and Carter Hart also still under contract, it does raise the question whether the Flyers may look to cash in on Hart’s strong 22/23 season this summer.
Kings Lock Up Gavrikov
With the cap space they saved in the 3-team trade with the Blue Jackets and Flyers, the Los Angeles Kings signed Vladislav Gavrikov to a 2 year deal with a $5.875M cap hit. The deal keeps the 27-year old deadline acquisition in L.A. where he’ll be expected to play a significant role for the Kings as they attempt to push into contender territory.
The Kings have been aggressive in their pursuit of veterans to add to their loaded prospect pool over the past few summers, first with the additions of Phillip Danault and Victor Arvidsson in 2021 and then Kevin Fiala in 2022. Inking Gavrikov to a new deal follows the trend, although cap efficiency is a concern this time. Gavrikov is projected to see big minutes by the model but with a modest third pair impact and has a cap efficiency that doesn’t look great as a result. If the Kings are able to settle him into a second or third pair role, they may be able to extract some incremental impact.
Blackhawks Sign Athanasiou
The Chicago Blackhawks may have won the draft lottery and sit poised to add Connor Bedard in just a few weeks, but they don’t appear to be done tanking just yet.
Chicago signed Andreas Athanasiou to a 2 year extension this week, with a cap hit of $4.25M. It’s a big payday for a forward with a projected fourth line impact next season, resulting in a very poor contract from a cap efficiency standpoint for Chicago.
The Blackhawks were very successful in completely gutting their roster over the past 12 months and they now need warm bodies that can fill out an NHL roster with contracts that can get them to the cap floor next season. Chicago has amassed a massive amount of draft capital during their teardown and it will take a few years for it to percolate into NHL impact. They have the opportunity to add another high end first round pick or two by staying in the NHL cellar for the next year of two before actively trying to turn the corner towards contention.
More Offseason Team & Player Plots
The team and player plots seen above can be found for all 32 teams around the site and are updated regularly. Explore more on your own:
- Projected 2023-2024 Standings: Find preliminary projected standings here based on current rosters. Check back through the offseason to see how the landscape shifts with trades and free agent signings.
- 23/24 Player Profiles: Find projected league leaders here, along with links to player cards for each team.
- 23/24 Team Profiles: Find roster profiles and cap/roster projections here. Additional team plots like cap efficiency and lineup viz are available on the team pages for members.
- Draft Capital Plots: Find success probability distributions for the next 3 drafts here.
