The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway from the Washington Capitals yesterday. The Bruins sent Craig Smith and a package of draft picks to Washington in return, while the Minnesota Wild also got involved with some salary retention. Let’s take a closer look at the deal.
The Pieces
Dmitry Orlov
Dmitry Orlov is the headliner in this deal. He won a Stanley Cup with the Capitals in 2018 and is still projected as an effective top pair defenseman. His results this season have underwhelmed relative to the projections, although there are some obvious reasons. His on-ice 5v5 SH% is under 7%, which is on the low side and is likely to trend upward. His individual 5v5 SH% is also low, sitting under 2% and the lowest of his career. His 8-9% shooting over the past two seasons is very high for a defenseman and we shouldn’t expect that to continue, but an upward trend is likely. His 5v5 xGA/60 has taken a sharp upward turn this season as well and a move to a lesser role on a deep Bruins defense corps is likely to help there. Orlov is a pending UFA.
Garnet Hathaway
Garnet Hathaway is also a pending UFA. While playing bottom six minutes, Hathaway’s projected impact has trended solidly in second line territory this season and his actual results are reasonably close to his projected numbers. He’s had a hot hand this season, currently shooting over 14% at 5v5 which is the highest of his career.
Craig Smith
Craig Smith is another pending UFA who seemed to fall out of favor in Boston this season. His projected impact has dipped slightly strong while playing 4th line minutes, although it remains strong. An opportunity in the middle six seems like it would be warranted.
Prospects, Picks, and Other Players
Andrei Svatlakov is a 26 year old center who has spent his entire professional career in the KHL. He has 27 points in 66 games for CKSA Moscow this season.
There were no conditions included on any of the draft picks. With the Bruins currently leading the NHL standings, the first round pick sent to is likely to be a late round pick.
The Verdict
Boston Bruins
The Bruins are leading the Atlantic and look like leading cup contenders, yet they don’t have the top rated team profile in the model. That belongs to the Toronto Maple Leafs, who already beefed up their roster with the addition of Ryan O’Reilly last week. With their in-division competition already on the move, it’s not a surprise to see the Bruins following suit.
This trade doesn’t move the needle much for the Bruins though. Hathaway profiles similarly to Smith but with slightly lower projected impact. The forward group looks very similar in the model as a result. Orlov is a very effective defenseman and he joins an already strong defense corps. With the previous top 6 all projected with 2nd pair or better impacts, taking one of them out for Orlov results in a fairly minor change to team strength. Overall, the changes add some offense while a small drop to defense results in virtually no change to overall team strength. It does add depth, though, and the Bruins have added some insurance in the event they lose a defenseman to injury during the playoffs.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals are involved in what’s shaping up to be an incredible race for the two Eastern Conference wild card spots. They’ve been falling off the pace over the past month and it looks as though they’ve acknowledged the time has come to overhaul an aging core. They ship out two pending UFAs and get one back to make the cap work.
More importantly, they get a package of draft picks that they can use to help re-stock their prospect cupboards. It seems unlikely that the Capitals will fully throw in the towel and start a rebuild while Alex Ovechkin remains in pursuit of the all-time goals record. The picks received can be used to kick-start a regeneration of their prospect pool or they may be able to use them as additional trade chips to help extend the window for what remains of their current core.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild are a minor player in the deal, brokering their second trade in the past week by getting involved with salary retention. With a buyout penalties looming for a couple more seasons, they’re likely 3 years out from a true contention window so using this year’s cap space to add futures is a reasonable move. They get a draft pick for their trouble.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
