The Buffalo Sabres signed Dylan Cozens to a seven year extension today, with a cap hit of $7.1M. The deal also comes with a modified no trade clause beginning in 2027/28 (5 team no trade list). Let’s take a closer look.
The Player: Dylan Cozens
Cozens is now in his third NHL season and he seems to be finding his game at the NHL level and his projected impact has improved significantly relative to the start of the season. He’s scoring at a rate better than the 75th percentile among NHL forwards at 5v5, thanks partly to a career best 5v5 SH% of 11.11%. While it’s a career high, it’s only slightly above the average for NHL forwards so there’s reason to believe it’s relatively sustainable.
Inking his extension just two days shy of his 22nd birthday, Cozens still has 2-3 years of development ahead before we should expect his impact to plateau into his prime. Based on generic age curves in the model, his projected impact will grow into a capable second line forward.
The Team: Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres have been the doormat of the NHL for the past decade but are trying to change that perception by showing some improvement this season. It will take time to reach contender status as the roster still has a ways to go to become highly competitive. It’s moving in the right direction though and the prospect pool is well stocked, ranking 7th in the Hockey Prospecting model.
The Sabres core is only just starting to hit it’s prime, with Alex Tuch (26) and Tage Thompson (25) the elder statesmen of the core group. Most of the other players who will play big roles over the next few seasons are still developing, including those that are already having an impact at the NHL level.
They also have plenty of cap flexibility. CapFriendly has their projected cap hit this season at just over $64M, ranking 31st in the NHL.
The Verdict
This looks like a good deal for the Sabres, with the potential to become a home run. They lock up Cozens through his prime seasons and gain some cost certainty at a key position. If Cozens’ development continues along the generic age curve, they’ll have a second line center locked in a reasonable cap hit. If he outpaces the generic age curve and pushes toward a top line impact, it has the potential to look like a steal halfway through.
With Tage Thompson also locked in with a seven year extension that kicks in next season, the Sabres have a 1-2 punch at center under contract for $14.2M for the next 7 seasons. With young defensemen like Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power on the blueline and Alex Tuch already performing at a high level on the wing, the Sabres have the pieces in place to form a solid contention core. They also have the cap flexibility to acquire players to fill in cracks in the roster as it evolves.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
