The New York Islanders acquired Bo Horvat from the Vancouver Canucks today. In exchange, the Isles sent Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty, and a protected 2023 1st round pick. Let’s dig into the deal to see how it fits each teams needs, using the Roster Regeneration framework as a guide to sustainable roster building.
Current Season Performance
Bo Horvat is in a contract year and has put up excellent offensive numbers with the Canucks this season. His shooting has been red hot, with a 5v5 SH% over 20% on the season. He’s also benefitted from a high on-ice shooting percentage which is at 10.96% at 5v5. Both number scream that regression is coming at some point and it’s reasonable to expect Horvat’s offensive production to dip closer to previous seasons going forward.
Anthony Beauvillier has been a servicable middle six forward for the Islanders, although defensive impact is a concern. His 5v5 shooting seems to have abandoned him after the 20/21 season, dropping from the 10-15% range in each of his first 5 seasons to under 7% both this season and last. It’s enough to leave the possibility open that he’s suffering from a very long cold streak but it’s been long enough it’s worth considering if there may be some other cause for the change.
Roster Roadmap
The Canucks roster is in need of a major overhaul. The current roster profile is propped up by goaltending. The rest of the roster simply isn’t good enough to be considered a contender. The prospect pool is also in dire need of improvement, ranking 27th in the Hockey Prospecting model. From the Canucks Roster Roadmap, the priority for the Canucks is building up their Future Core which is currently in the 19-22 age range.
The Islanders are fighting to stay in contention for a playoff spot this season and their roster is also propped up by goaltending. There is significant room for improvement before they look like a cup contender and the roster is among the oldest in the NHL. Their prospect pool falls at 31st in Hockey Prospecting‘s model, so there isn’t much in place to start building a future core around. From the Islanders Roster Roadmap, their priority should be trying to salvage some value from their current roster and acquire draft picks and prospects age 18 and under to start building a new Future Core.
The Verdict
The Islanders landed the best player in the trade, yet it feels like an extremely myopic move on their part. Replacing Beauvillier with Horvat improves their current roster slightly, with primarily a bump to offensive impact. But it’s not enough to make them contenders this season. It may not even be enough to get them into the playoffs.
Long term, the trade sets the Islanders back even further than they already were. The Isles gave up a prospect and a 1st round pick, depleting their already empty futures cupboard. The first round pick falls in the age range identified for the Future Core in the Roster Roadmap as well, which goes against the long range vision we had to create a sustainably successful roster.
From a Canucks perspective, the deal looks somewhat more favorable. The slight drop in this season’s roster strength is fine given the Canucks are well back in the playoff race. A lesser showing this season will simply help their draft position this summer.
In the Canucks roster roadmap, we identified the building around the Future Core in the 19-22 age range as the priority, moving out current roster players to build value there. Moving pending UFA Horvat for a package including some future assets fits with that objective. Raty fits in our target age range for the future core, although the likelihood he develops into a top six forward is less than we’d prefer. The 1st round pick doesn’t fit with the target age range for the Future Core, but the future value is still a nice inclusion.
Taking back Beauvillier helped make the cap work for both sides, but it also gives the Canucks a serviceable NHL player for the remainder of this season and next. They’ll also have the opportunity to move Beauvillier before next year’s deadline to acquire additional assets for the Future Core.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
