We’ve hit the mid point of the 2022/23 regular season. I thought it would be a good time to check in on how the NHL’s 32 teams stack up against one another based on their projected roster strengths using a power rankings list.
Before we jump in, let’s clarify how we’ll rank the teams. With the model projecting team point percentage for the next 82 regular season games, that’s the metric we’ll use. On the team profiles, it’s shown as Team Strength. It won’t match the projected standings, since we’re ignoring banked points and focusing solely on predicted future performance. It is the pace we should expect each team to set over the second half of the season, driving the projected portion of the projected standings.
Today we’ll start with the bottom third of the league, looking at teams ranked #32 through #22. Most of these teams are clearly in the tank mode looking to land a top pick in the 2023 draft but there are a few surprises…
#32 – Chicago Blackhawks
The Chicago Blackhawks have done a masterful job at tearing down their roster over the past 12 months, clearly setting their sights on the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. They entered the season ranked as the 6th worst team in the model but an abysmal first half performance has helped drop them solidly to the bottom of the league, both in team strength ranking and current standings points. Their actual results through the first half match the profile, as they rank at the bottom of the league in both xGF/60 and GF/60 at 5v5. They look like a good bet to finish with the best odds of a first overall pick next summer.
#31 – Anaheim Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks are giving the Blackhawks competition for draft lottery odds, but achieving their poor record in a much different manner. The Ducks have struggled mightily defensively this season, ranking at the bottom of the league in 5v5 xGA/60 and are just off the worst in the league in 5v5 GA/60. It’s not a big surprise given their defense corps looks incredibly weak on paper and their goaltending tandem looks like a couple of backup goalies. The Ducks have some exciting pieces in the pipeline, but it’s going to take some time to see the results.
#30 – San Jose Sharks
Moving on to the 30th ranked team in predicted point percentage, we find the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks profile is an improvement over the previous two teams but is still far below average. Even strength defense is the Sharks biggest strength based on their roster profile and they’ve held their own at 5v5 this season with a 5v5 xGF% now over 50%. Erik Karlsson’s resurgence has been a big story through the first half, no doubt helping the Sharks bank a few extra points to put them 13th in the current standings.
#29 – New York Rangers
Wait. What? Yes, the New York Rangers went to the Eastern Conference Final last year and currently occupy a wild card spot. Their success over the past couple of seasons has been largely driven by all-world goaltending and a dangerous powerplay. The model looks at 5v5 play, which is at least part of the reason for the discrepancy. The Rangers started the season off putting up some better numbers at 5v5 but have fallen into old habits recently which is cause for concern. The good news is there is time to make upgrades for the stretch drive. The bad news is that they will still likely only go as far as Igor Shesterkin and their powerplay can take them this season.
#28 – Los Angeles Kings
Another of last season’s playoff teams and another team currently occupying a playoff spot this season lands at #27. The Los Angeles Kings are improving but their team profile still shows a below average team. The Kings added some significant offensive punch with the acquisition of Kevin Fiala in the offseason, yet they need more. There are plenty of young players who may grow into larger roles over the next few years, though, so the Kings appear to be headed in the right direction. And with enough points banked in the first half of the season to put them in second place in the Pacific, they are solidly in the playoff race this season.
#27 – Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres have been in the NHL’s cellar for what seems like forever. Going into the season, they ranked last in team strength seemingly relegating them there again this season. Things have been different this season, though. While they’ve cooled off recently, a red hot start helped them keep pace in the playoff race and they sit only a couple of points back of the wild card spots. Tage Thompson has continued his breakout and a number of younger players, led by Rasmus Dahlin, have made their presence known. The Sabres no longer look like the NHL’s bottom feeders, but they still have work to do to compete with the established contenders in the Atlantic.
#26 – Columbus Blue Jackets
At #26, we find the Columbus Blue Jackets. The offseason addition of Johnny Gaudreau helped the Blue Jackets rank near average in offensive impact. Goaltending and defense are another story. To make matters worse, injuries have decimated the team this season including a season ending injury to Zach Werenski whose impact is excluded from this season’s team rankings.
#25 – Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens are early in a rebuild and would surely benefit from a top pick in next’s year’s entry draft. They’ve featured a number of prospects in the NHL lineup this season, providing them with valuable experience at the NHL level while they are less concerned with putting wins on the board. They sit ahead of only the Columbus Blue Jackets in the Eastern Conference Standings and should reasonably expect to maintain their current draft lottery odds through the second half of the season.
#24 – Arizona Coyotes
The Arizona Coyotes have been sucking up bad contracts from around the NHL for the last few seasons and continued to do so in the lead up to the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. Their record was better to start the season than it was last year and it looks like they may be too strong to keep pace with the Blackhawks and Ducks in the draft lottery sweepstakes. Karel Vejemelka has been a big part of that so far this season, and it will be interesting to see how the Coyotes manage his workload through the second half of the season as they eye improved draft lottery position.
#23 – Winnipeg Jets
Maybe the biggest surprise yet on the list. The Winnipeg Jets are neck-and-neck with the Dallas Stars for the Central Division lead, yet they fall in at #23 on the team strength ranking. Much like the New York Rangers of 21/22, this year’s version of the Jets is achieving success through incredible goaltending. Connor Hellebuyck’s projected impact is lower after a couple of slower seasons, but he seems to be back to his Vezina winning form this season. With a shoddy defense corps in front of him, the Jets look like they’ll go however far Hellebuyck can take them this season.
#22 – St Louis Blues
The St Louis Blues have been remarkably inconsistent this season. With a very poor even strength defense rating due to a defense corps that no longer has the high end impact it needs, the model projection sees the Blues as a non-playoff team. Now with injuries to Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, the Blues don’t look likely to make a push for the playoffs and would probably be better off in the long run to move some veterans for future assets.
Next up, Meddling in Mediocrity: #21-#11 in tomorrow’s post.
