My last look at the Edmonton Oilers was in August, after the majority of offseason moves were complete. The Oilers were headed toward the 2022/23 season with a roster quite similar to the one that went to the Western Conference Final last season. The results have been more like the team’s regular season last season though, so what should we expect for the second half of the season? Let’s take a look at the Oiler’s performance this season with data from games played through December 31.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
After a streaky start to the season, the Oilers have leveled out right near their projected point percentage. They’ve sustained an xGF% of roughly 50% at 5v5 thoughout the season, with their 5v5 xGA/50 trending slightly down over the past 20 games. That puts pressure on finishing and goaltending to make the difference on a nightly basis. Their goaltending has been break even, but finishing has been a struggle, leading to a deficit in net G/60 at 5v5.
The Oilers powerplay has been their savior, cruising along at a high rate. It’s been good enough to make up ground lost at 5v5, although a mediocre penalty kill limits the potential total advantage on special teams.
Individual Performance
Connor McDavid is the Oilers’ offensive engine. He leads the team in 5v5 G/60 and is second behind injured Evander Kane in 5v5 P/60. He’s outperforming his projected 5v5 goal scoring rate on the back of 17% shooting. That’s likely to regress a bit, but it’s less of a concern for McDavid than most players as his historical 5v5 shooting percentage has been around 14-15%. His assist rates are below projected so far and will likely trend upward as the season goes on. McDavid is one of the most heavily utilized forwards in the NHL at 5v5 and some help from his supporting cast would go a long way.
Much has been made about Darnell Nurse’s $9M cap hit. While it’s a big cap hit for a defenseman, Nurse does lead the team’s defensemen offensively and has profiiled like a top pair defenseman this season. He needs a partner. Cody Ceci had a great run in last year’s playoffs but is looking more like his profile this season. His projected impact is a third pair defenseman and it’s been trending downward with underperformance so far this season.
In my offseason look at the Oilers, it appeared that they addressed a weakness in goal. The addition of Jack Campbell and promotion of Stuart Skinner gave them an above average tandem in net. Nearly halfway into the season, they still look like they have an above average tandem but it hasn’t panned out they way they planned. Jack Campbell has struggled to the point his projected impact has fallen from starting goaltending territory to a mediocre backup. Meanwhile, Stuart Skinner has been solid and has stolen the starting netminder’s position.
Pacific Division Landscape
The Oilers are involved in a tight race for playoff spots in the Pacific Division. The Golden Knights have separated themselves after a strong start to the season. The next four teams are tightly packed, with teams changing position in the standings on a nightly basis. After games played through December 31, the Oilers are the team projected to lose out in the race although a hot or cold streak from any of the teams in the race could change that quickly.
Current Roster Profile
The Oilers roster continues to look like a slightly above average team. They have game-breaking talent at the top of the forward lineup, but depth is a concern. Their defense corps needs an upgrade to two in the top four as well to provide more balance. We’ve seen Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatl carry the Oilers on their backs for extended periods and, as it stands now, the Oilers will go as far as their two superstar forwards can take them.
The Oilers have roughly $1.6M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly). That doesn’t give them a lot of flexibility for deadline additions to address their needs. A true top pair defenseman is probably not in the cards for that price tag without also removing a salary (and a player) from the current roster. A better bet may be a second pair defenseman.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
