The Stanley Cup hangover has claimed another victim in the Colorado Avalanche this season. After winning the ultimate prize last spring, the Avs haven’t looked like the juggernaut of the past couple of seasons through the first third of the 2022/23 season. Injuries have certainly played their part with a number of Avalanche skaters spending time on the sidelines. With some big names expected to return to the lineup soon, what can we expect from the Avalanche for the remainder of the season?
I last looked at the Avalanche in early August, when most of the 2022/23 roster was in place. While they didn’t look like the force they were over the past couple of seasons, they still appeared to be a strong team. Since that update, they added Evan Rodrigues as a UFA signing and inked Nathan MacKinnon to an 8 year extension that will kick in next season. Let’s take a look at their 2022/23 season performance up to the Christmas break.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
The Avalanche have stumbled their way through the early part of the season, although a myriad of significant injuries has made it difficult to grasp just how strong this year’s version of the team is. Gabriel Landeskog has missed the entire season so far, while other key players like Nathan MacKinnon and Bowen Byram have also had lengthy absences. The Avalanche struggled at 5v5 to start the season, particularly defensively, although they’ve been gaining traction over the past month or so and now have an xGF% on the right side of 50% for the season.
The Avalanche have also had trouble converting their chances, which has been an area of concern in recent weeks. With some big name players missing from the roster due to injury through that stretch, though, it’s likely to see a correction as they get healthier. At the other end, Goaltending has been their biggest strength this season. Alexandar Georgiev and Pavel Francouz may be the best tandem in the NHL to this point in the season and have helped the Avs stay within striking distance in the Central Division while they’ve struggled in other areas.
Individual Performance
The Avalanche stars have led the way offensively this season. Nathan MacKinnon leads the team in 5v5 P/60 by a wide margin while Mikko Rantanen and Valerie Nichushkin round out the top 3. MacKinnon started the season strong before going down with an injury and will provide a big boost when he returns to the lineup in early January as he leads the team in 5v5 P/60. Rantanen is the team’s 5v5 G/60 leader by a wide margin and has carried the offense while both Landeskog and MacKinnon have been out injured.
One of the questions coming into the season was whether Alex Newhook could step into the 2C role following the departure of Nazem Kadri in the offseason. The Avalanche clearly decided they needed some additional depth, adding Evan Rodrigues late in the offseason. Both have been decent, but neither has has been able to fill the void left by Kadri’s departure either. MacKinnon’s injury has highlighted that fact and it wouldn’t be a suprise to see the Avs look for an upgrade at 2C before the trade deadline.
The Av’s goaltending tandem of Alexandar Georgiev and Pavel Francouz has been outstanding this season. Georgiev sits 7th in 5v5 GSAx/60 among goalies with over 200 5v5 minutes. Francouz sits near the 75th percentile in the same metric. Together, they’ve been a large part in helping Colorado weather their injury troubles.
Central Division Landscape
The outlook for the Avalanche is good despite their injury woes. The Stars and Jets have risen to the top of the division with strong starts to their seasons, while the Avs and Wild try to reel them in after sluggish starts to their seasons. Those four teams have separated themselves from the rest of the Central in the projected standings and look likely to be playoff teams.
The race for positioning is tight though, and it’s quite likely we’ll see some jockeying for position among those teams as the season wears on. The Avs have been heating up of late, winning 6 of their last 7 and are about to get reinforcements for their forward lines with Mackinnon and Landeskog expected to return in January. The model projection has them in a neck and neck race with the Stars for the Central Division top seed.
Current Roster Profile
The Avalanche have a strong roster when healthy. They have gamebreakers on forward and defense with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar and boast one of the best goaltending tandems in the league. Their defense corps is solid top to bottom. Their forward group has plenty of good depth options with a large contingent of capable bottom six forwards on the roster. Where they may be lacking is the second line, with a big drop off in projected impact after their top four forwards.
The Avalanche are about to get some high impact players back from injury which should give them a boost in the short term. They also have roughly $7.2M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly), which is enough to make a meaningful addition or two before the stretch drive. If they can land a second line center, they’ll be solidly in the conversation as contenders at the end of the season.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
