In our last Metropolitan Division Snapshot, we looked at the division during training camp as teams were still making their final roster decisions ahead of the season. With two weeks of regular season games now in the books, we’re starting to see if things are going as expected. Sample sizes are still small, so even unexpected performances may be unsustainable this early in the season.
Let’s take a look through the updated Metropolitan Division projected standings along with a look at early season trends for each team, with actual data for games played through October 22.
One thing to keep in mind is that the projections are built up from the player level and, aside from 5 goaltenders league-wide, we don’t have enough actual data for 22/23 to start updating player projections yet. Most of the change in the projected standings at this stage is due to actual win/loss records and roster shuffling based on actual player usage.
Metropolitan Division Projected Standings
The Metropolitan Division is by far the tightest in the projected standings as the regular season approaches. Let’s take a look at each team’s late summer moves in order of the projected standings.
1 – Carolina Hurricanes
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Hurricanes are off to a 3-1-1 start to the season. They’ve generated a ton of offense at 5v5. Combined with a relatively stingy defensive effort thus far, they’ve built a massive advantage in 5v5 expected goal share. They’ve also received stellar goaltending from Freddie Andersen, who’s play is the main reason the team 5v5 GSAx/60 is so high.
Martin Necas is off to a great start as he embarks on year 1 of a two year ‘prove it’ deal. He’s found his way onto the scoresheet regularly over the first two weeks of the season and has shown a strong defensive impact to go along with his offensive contribution.
2 – Pittsburgh Penguins
Change in Division Rank: +4
The Penguins look intent on proving that they can still compete based on their early season results. They lead the current division standings and have a 4-0-1 record through their first 5 games. Strong goaltending and finishing have played their part in the Penguins early season run, but it’s also backed by a strong xG% at 5v5.
Sidney Crosby seems to be ageless. A hot start for the captain has helped the Penguins hit the ground running this season. While his offensive output will likely cool eventually, it’s encouraging for the Pens to have Crosby contributing in a big way.
3 – New Jersey Devils
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Devils have strung together a number of well played games at 5v5 to start the season where they’ve also had the special teams edge. They’re off to a mediocre start though, thanks to some extremely poor finishing and goaltending. Both are in what it likely unsustainable territory and it’s reasonable to expect some improvement with a larger sample size. Yet, goaltending was the Devils’ Achilles heel last season and early indications suggest it may be an issue again.
Captain Nico Hischier is off to a strong start to the campaign. He’s shown a strong defensive presence, coupled with a good offensive impact early in the season.
4 – Philadelphia Flyers
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Flyers may be the most surprising team with strong results through the first two weeks of the season. Expected by many to struggle, particularly with some key players on the shelf to start the season, the Flyers jumped out to a 3-0-0 start and had a 5-1-0 record after Saturday’s games. Scratching below the surface raises some red flags, however, as goaltending and finishing have been unsustainably high and covered up a bid deficit in 5v5 xG%. A 5v5 xGA/60 isn’t going to get it done in the long run and the Flyers need to shore up their 5v5 game if they hope to build on their early season success.
Carter Hart is a big reason behind the Flyers’ hot start. He’s been lights out to start the season, saving more than 2 goals above expected per 60. It’s not sustainable, but the Flyers will ride it as long as it lasts and hope it’s a sign that Hart is returning to the form that once made him a highly regarded goaltending prospect.
5 – Washington Capitals
Change in Division Rank: -2
The Capitals are off to a middling start and show some troubling early season trends. They’re giving up more expected goals at 5v5 than their generating, which could be a sign of struggles to come. It’s not a big gap, however, so we’ll watch to see if they can tighten up their 5v5 game as the season progresses.
John Carson continues to quietly be one of the best 5v5 defensemen in the NHL. He’s put up some excellent results through the first two weeks of the season and is once again a key pillar on the Capitals blueline.
6 – New York Rangers
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Rangers followed up their run to the Eastern Conference Final by charging out of the gate this season, winning 3 of their first 4 games. They’ve put together a strong game at 5v5 early in the season, which is a welcome contrast to their performance last season.
Adam Fox is off to a stellar start to the season. He’s created a ton of offense so far, which may be a sign of a return to the form that won the 20/21 Norris Trophy. If that’s the case, it’s bad news for the rest of the Metropolitan Division.
7 – New York Islanders
Change in Division Rank: +0
Early season trends from the Islanders suggest that there may have been more to last year’s poor showing than simply injuries and a long season opening road trip. The Isles have lost the expected goal battle at 5v5 so far, which doesn’t bode well for their long term prospects.
One positive for the Isles in the early going is the play of Ryan Pulock. He’s had a strong defensive impact thus far and has chipped in offensively as well.
8 – Columbus Blue Jackets
Change in Division Rank: -3
The Blue Jackets added the top free agent of this past summer’s UFA class in Johnny Gaudreau, but they still have a lot of room for improvement in the roster. It’s shown through in the early stages of the season, as the Jackets have struggled to an xG% deficit at 5v5 and they’ve been outclassed on special teams. Both those areas are showing signs of improvement in week 2. Unfortunately for the Jackets, goaltending has not and it’s been the biggest factor in their early season struggles.
Johnny Gaudreau has come as advertised and his presence appears to be giving a boost to teammates. Boone Jenner earned the opportunity to center the top line to start the season and his early performance is stronger than projected, even under a much heavier workload than projected.
More
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse team plots for all 32 teams? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
