The Dallas Stars have been mediocre since their run to the Stanley Cup Final in the 2020 bubble. They narrowly missed the playoffs the following season and squeaked in last year only to bow out in the first round. Will the Stars remain mired in mediocrity this season?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Stars got off to a slow start for the 21/22 season, but a 7 game win streak around the quarter mark of the season helped propel them into playoff contention. They were slightly better than break even in term of xGF% at 5v5 and had decent goaltending. Finishing was a concern, but they managed to hang on for a wild card spot. The changing of the guard is well underway, as a youngsters Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger led the way for Dallas.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Stars landed one of the most hyped unrestricted free agents this offseason, signing Mason Marchment to a 4 year, $18M deal. Marchment had a breakout season in Florida last season, finishing among the NHL leaders in A/60 and P/60 at 5v5 and in the top quartile for 5v5 G/60 and xGA/60. The Stars are surely hoping he’ll sustain that level of play in Dallas, where he’s likely to land a larger role. While the model projection for Marchment doesn’t suggest a repeat of last season’s impact, he does look like a capable middle six forward who should likely slot in on the second line.
The Stars other major offseason business was re-signing RFAs Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger. While the former remains unsigned, Oettinger inked a 3 year, $12M deal on September 1. He’ll look to build on his outstanding performance in the Stars first round series against the Flames last spring.
According to CapFriendly, the Stars have about $6.3M in cap space remaining with 22 players on their roster. That may not be enough to extend Robertson, so there is a possibility of a cap dump ahead of the regular season. It’s not a guarantee though, as LTIR cap relief, juggling players to the minors, or a bridge deal may be all that’s needed to make the numbers work.
22/23 Roster
The Stars appear stuck in mediocrity. Their projected roster strength is a hair above average, on the strength of team defense and goaltending. They have a few high end forwards, but not enough, and their offense is expected to struggle.
Central Division Landscape
The Wild, Predators, and Avalanche look like the teams to beat in the Central as the 22/23 season approaches. The Stars lead the pack of teams below them who will look to mount a challenge in the division or battle for wild card berths.
Long Term Outlook
The transition to the Stars new core seems to be well along. Yet the Stars profile still suggests a team that is past it’s peak, particularly in the forward group. Dallas will have to strategically replace some of their veterans with younger, developing players over the next couple of seasons to complement the new core.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
