After two straight trips to the Eastern Conference Final, the New York Islanders fell short of the playoffs last season. Can they return to the postseason in 22/23?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Islanders struggled early in the 21/22 season and never really recovered. They had excellent goaltending but otherwise struggled at 5v5. Their finishing was merely decent, while they allowed significantly more chances against than they generated for themselves. Their powerplay was slightly above average, while their penalty kill was another weakness.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Islanders had a very quiet summer. Their biggest offseason change came in a draft day trade with the Canadiens, when they acquired Alex Romanov. Romanov is projected to have a 2nd pair impact next season and the Isles signed the 22 year old RFA to a 3 year extension following the trade. He should find a home in the middle of the Islanders’ lineup and adds some much needed youth to New York’s roster.
There was radio silence from Long Island as free agency got underway and it didn’t break until late August. The Islanders didn’t add any UFAs of note, so another RFA extension was really the only NHL level news for the club. Noah Dobson signed a 3 year extension, bringing another 22 year old defenseman under contract. Like Romanov, Dobson is projected to have a 2nd pair impact next season.
According to CapFriendly, the Islanders have about $2.3M in cap space remaining with a 23 player roster. Is enough room that they could add one of the summer’s lingering UFAs before the season gets underway.
22/23 Roster
The Islanders’ roster profile for the 22/23 season suggests that last year’s struggles were not simply a case of a run of back luck. Their goaltending is a strength, rated well above average, but the rest of the roster is mediocre. Their forward group is a big area of concern, with an aging crew that doesn’t have enough impact behind Mat Barzal and Anders Lee. The defense corps is also a bit thin and they’ll need at least one of their freshly signed young defensemen to step up with a big season.
Metropolitan Division Landscape
The Metropolitan Division projection is incredibly tight. The Islanders fall near the bottom of the group, though, and there isn’t a lot of reason to suggest they have a good chance to outperform the model. With a number of teams to leapfrog to get into playoff contention, the Islanders look likely to be left on the sidelines again next spring.
Long Term Outlook
The Islanders long term outlook suggests that last season’s fall from grace may only be the beginning. Their forward group is almost universally past their prime, yet many of are under contract for another 3 or more seasons. The defense corps is in somewhat better shape and looks to be stable for the next few years.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
