The Sabres have been bottom dwellers in the NHL for a decade. Is there hope they can finally start to move upward this season?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The 21/22 season was a microcosm of the Sabre’s last decade. After a promising start, they quickly faded into obscurity in the standings . They traded a disgruntled Jack Eichel to Vegas early in the season, getting a package back that included Alex Tuch. Tuch was a bright spot, leading the team in 5v5 assists/60. Tage Thompson was another positive, as his breakout season had him lead the Sabres in 5v5 goals/60.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Sabres were not all that active in free agency or on the trade market this summer. Their most notable additions this summer were Ilya Lybushkin, Riley Sheahan and Eric Comrie. Comrie is the most intriguing of the bunch, as he comes with a strong projected impact although it’s based on limited action as a backup. With 41 year old Craig Anderson the other NHL goaltender under contract, there is opportunity for Comrie to earn more playing time and possibly vie for the starter’s role.
Buffalo also locked up Tage Thompson for the long term after his breakout season. With another year left on his current deal with a $1.4M cap hit, the Sabres signed Thompson to a 7 year, $7.1M extension. It’s a big commitment for a player who didn’t produce much at the NHL level until the 21/22 season. Best case, the Sabres have identified something that suggests last season’s breakout performance wasn’t a flash in the pan. Worst case, it could become an albatross deal if Thompson can’t maintain his 21/22 level of play.
According to CapFriendly, the Sabres have nearly $20M in cap space as the 22/23 season approaches. Without any significant offseason additions, it seems likely that Buffalo is content to occupy the bottom of the Atlantic again this season with a strong draft class incoming next summer.
22/23 Roster
The Sabres have the lowest team rating in the NHL. Their defense and forward groups are both among the worst in league and they have the worst rated offense as a result. Their strong ranking in defense depth is a bit of a red herring as it indicates that there isn’t a big drop off in impact from their top defensemen to the average.
Atlantic Division Landscape
The Atlantic’s four incumbent playoff teams all look strong again. The Detroit Red Wings look poised to challenge for a playoff spot, leaving less competition at the bottom of the division. The Sabres have a good shot to have the best draft lottery odds in the division.
Long Term Outlook
With a decade of rebuilding already behind them, the Sabres are still a long way from contention. There is some potential growth in a young defense corps and a few promising forwards, but there is a lack of top end talent that needs to be rectified. With the prospect of some high end draft lottery odds this season, perhaps they can start to rectify that.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
Writeup does not seem to understand the development model of current Sabres management.
Expect a breakout from one or more of Cozens, Krebs and Mittlestat plus good sheltered opportunies for high skilled rookies JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn (both AHL Allstars +), not to mention Owen Power.
Rookies are one thing the current model doesn’t handle well. I have changed my in season approach this year such that player projections (and therefore team projections) will evolve once players get over the 200 5v5 minutes threshold.
There‘a certainly reason for optimism with some of the Sabres’s prospects. I’m less optimistic about a big jump from established NHlers like Cozens or Middlestat since the model does have a good set of NHL data for.
Krebs could be one to watch, though. He’s young enough we could see large jumps in development this season. It will be fun to watch how the player projections evolve as the season gets rolling.