The Vegas Golden Knights missed the playoffs for the first time in their history last season. Was it a case of one bad season or a worrying sign of a downward trend?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Golden Knights were slow out of the gate and traded for an injured Jack Eichel early in the season. Injuries to other star players like Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty piled up, and Vegas found themselves in a dogfight for a playoff spot down the stretch. They weren’t able to hang on, despite a relatively strong xGF% at 5v5 coupled with decent finishing and goaltending. The loss of Stone and Pacioretty, who are two of the top 5v5 forwards in the NHL, for long stretches proved to be too much as the Knights fell short of the postseason.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Golden Knights created a cap crunch for themselves with the acquisition of Jack Eichel while he was LTIR eligible. They had to shed salary this offseason as a result, and they did so by sending Max Pacioretty and Dylan Coughlan to Carolina for future considerations. That move allowed them to extend Reilly Smith for 3 years. The 31 year old is projected as a second line forward next season and the $5M cap hit already looks like an overpay.
The Golden Knights also announced that Robin Lehner will miss the 22/23 season due to hip surgery. It likely means opportunity for Logan Thompson, who played well for Vegas down the stretch last year. He is projected as a starting goaltender, however it’s important to remember that the projection is only based on 19 games of NHL experience last season. Whether or not he’s able to maintain the level he showed last season could be a big factor in deciding the Golden Knights fate in the upcoming season.
According to CapFriendly, the Golden Knights are $5.8M over the cap with only 17 players on the roster. With Lehner set to spend the season on LTIR, they’re in a somewhat better position. However, they may still have to shed some salary before the season.
22/23 Roster
The Golden Knights are the top rated team for next season at the moment. Their defense corps is outstanding and they have one of the best all-around forward in the NHL in Mark Stone. Their goaltending looks good in the projection but is the biggest question mark with neither goaltender ever having seen a starter’s workload at the NHL level. The cap is another potential downfall and their team strength could take a hit if they do have to move out salary.
Pacific Division Landscape
Vegas is projected to be the top team in the Pacific by a wide margin, although we’ve signs that that gap could be reduced before opening night. The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames are the top challengers in the Pacific, while the Vancouver Canucks could move back into the playoff picture as well.
Long Term Outlook
The Golden Knights have been aggressive in their approach to create a contender. The core is starting to age, however many of their players under contract for multiple seasons are in their mid-late prime years. The salary cap will be the biggest challenge over the next few seasons as they try replace impact lost to aging or free agency.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
